Russia may escalate threats to ZNPP to deter Ukrainian counteroffensive

Thursday, 2 March 2023, 04:52

The Russian occupation authorities may be attempting to further constrain the presence of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the plant. Russia may also be attempting to deter a possible future Ukrainian counteroffensive by escalating threats to the ZNPP.

Source: Institute for the Study of War

Details: The ISW has highlighted the timeline of the latest events related to issues with the IAEA’s presence at the ZNPP:

The IAEA announced on 10 February that it delayed a planned rotation of personnel to the IAEA mission at the ZNPP due to security concerns.

IAEA General Director Rafael Grossi stated on 20 February that the situation remains unstable, and on 28 February, 20 detonations occurred near the ZNPP, briefly disconnecting a backup powerline to the ZNPP and underscoring the ZNPP’s "fragile external power situation."
Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, claimed on 22 February that the UN Department for Safety and Security indefinitely postponed the IAEA personnel rotation without proper cause, claiming that Russia is committed to ensuring the safe passage of IAEA personnel to the ZNPP.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on 1 March that Western intelligence agencies disrupted the routine rotation of the IAEA mission in order to accuse Russia of creating obstacles for the IAEA.

"Russian and occupation authorities likely intend to use either the possibly trapped IAEA personnel or a reduced IAEA presence at the plant to coerce international recognition of Russian ownership over the plant.

Russian and occupation authorities may also be attempting to deter a possible future Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine by escalating threats to the ZNPP," the ISW experts summed up.

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