Kremlin wants to nationalise Yandex in preparation for presidential elections – ISW

The Russian authorities are trying to nationalise Russian-owned internet search engine Yandex to control the information space in preparation for the presidential elections.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysts suggest that the Kremlin is likely trying to nationalise Russian internet giant Yandex to tighten its grip on the Russian information space in preparation for Russia's 2024 presidential election.

The ISW states that Yandex probably tried to balance between the Kremlin and its foreign governing bodies, but now it seems that it is losing this battle to the Kremlin.

The Kremlin appears to be forcing Yandex to sell or disassociate itself from its international subsidiaries, including the Yango Israel taxi service, to comply with Russian data disclosure laws that require Yandex to provide all user data — not just users in Russia — to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).

The Russian government had previously fined Yandex for failing to comply with the law, despite Yandex's claims that it could not provide the requested data.

The Russian government has also previously fined Yandex CEO Artem Savinovsky for not complying with Russian censorship laws, possibly forcing Yandex to comply with Russian censorship laws not only in Russia but also around the world to undermine its global operations and user base. 

Officials at the IT company have previously said that Yandex is committed to complying with the laws in every country where it operates and has condemned Russian data collection efforts, saying they only provide user data to the users' governments in that particular country.

Some Russian insider sources speculated that Yandex corporate development advisor Alexey Kudrin attempted but failed to turn Yandex into a national private company controlled by Yuri Kovalchuk, reported to be Putin’s personal banker.

Arkady Volozh, the founder and former CEO of Yandex, publicly condemned the invasion of Ukraine on 10 August, and some Russian insider sources suggested that Volozh's statement was a "white flag" indicating that he accepted that the Kremlin was more likely to continue with its assumed formal nationalisation move.

Reuters reported that its sources at Yandex fear a "brain drain" if the Kremlin nationalises Yandex, as many Yandex employees left Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Kremlin is likely aware of this concern, as investors linked to Kremlin officials, rather than Russian state agencies, recently submitted bids to buy Yandex.

The possible transfer of Yandex to affiliates of Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko indicates that Putin is seeking to reward Kiriyenko for his personal loyalty, particularly following the mutiny on 24 June by the Wagner Group.

Experts suggest that Putin is likely rewarding Kiriyenko to further secure his loyalty ahead of the 2024 presidential election, especially given that he was the Kremlin's contact person for affairs and elections in occupied Ukraine.

The report states that Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) continues to maintain a presence at sites in Belarus, and the status of its rumoured withdrawal to Russia remains unclear.

ISW has not seen any counter-evidence to contradict the recent 8 August suggestion that Wagner took 500 to 600 people by bus from Belarus to Krasnodar Krai, Voronezh and Rostov oblasts.

Russian sources suggest that Wagner's forces plan to conduct the second phase of their alleged withdrawal from Belarus on 13 August, but that a small group of the PMC’s instructors will remain in Belarus to train the Belarusian military.

At the same time, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has not yet commented on these assumptions directly or through intermediaries, as he has done in the past, which indicates that Prigozhin may not have complete freedom to comment on the future of Wagner.

To quote the ISW’s Takeaways on 10 August:

• The Wagner Group continues to maintain a presence at facilities in Belarus and the status of its rumoured withdrawal to Russia remains unclear.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has yet to comment on these speculations either directly or through intermediary sources as he has done previously, suggesting that Prigozhin may not be entirely at liberty to comment on the future of Wagner.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on 10 August.
• A Russian military blogger accused Russian military personnel of fabricating or embellishing claims of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian vehicles in Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted another series of missile and drone strikes in Ukraine overnight on 9-10 August.
• The Kremlin is likely attempting to crypto-nationalise Russian internet giant Yandex to strengthen control over the Russian information space in preparation for the 2024 Russian presidential election.
• The possible transfer of Yandex to affiliates of Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko suggests that Putin seeks to reward Kiriyenko for his personal loyalty, particularly following the June 24 Wagner Group rebellion.
• Affiliates of arrested former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin continue to explicitly attack the Kremlin on 10 August.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 10 August and made some advances.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area on 10 August.
• Russian officials continue to highlight the claimed success of the Russian defence industrial base.
• A Ukrainian military official reported that Russian forces are co-opting civilian infrastructure for the repression of local populations in the occupied territories.

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