Russia will try to avoid mobilisation but will recruit contractors – Estonian intelligence
The Intelligence Centre of the Defence Forces of Estonia believes that Russia cannot hope for big achievements in the war against Ukraine, like occupying Donetsk Oblast, without a big wave of mobilisation, but Russia will most likely try to refrain from taking this step.
Source: European Pravda; ERR with reference to a report of Estonian intelligence
Details: According to the intelligence, the fact that Russia wants to improve the mobilisation system "is not an absolute sign of preparation for mobilisation".
"Military enlistment offices will likely persuade reservists to sign the contracts. As it appears, the current pace of recruiting contractors will be enough to compensate for the losses of the Armed Forces of Russia," the report reads.
According to the analysis by the Estonian intelligence, "from the military point of view, Russia needs to conduct mobilisation in order to increase the offensive potential of its troops."
"Yet this is quite an unpopular method, so Russia will most likely refrain from mobilisation for domestic political reasons," the report explains.
Background: US Intelligence claimed that Ukraine will not be able to achieve its key objective – the city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast – in the course of counteroffensive operations.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said earlier that Ukraine does not feel pressure from the West regarding the counteroffensive.
Earlier, the Pentagon said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had performed a miracle, driving the Russians into defence.
In addition, the US defence department recorded an advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the counteroffensive but predicts that it will be a difficult and long fight.
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