Source: 81st Separate Airmobile Slobozhanshchyna Brigade of the Air Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Details: Russian forces dropped a munition containing an incendiary mixture onto the roof of the church. The brigade explained that the Russians typically use such weapons to strike bunkers and wooden structures.

"I had hoped that the church in the village would stand until the end and that after liberation by our soldiers I would be able to return there, but the Russians... God will be their judge," said the brigade's chaplain, Father Yaroslav, who had previously conducted services at the now-destroyed church.

This is the second time such an incident has occurred in Zakitne – Soviet authorities had already destroyed the church during the anti-religious campaign of the 1930s.

The current building was designed and constructed in 2009-2010.

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Source: Romanian President Nicușor Dan speaking to the BBC, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The president was asked whether Romania is planning further measures in response to the Geran drone incident in Galați, following the closure of the Russian consulate in Constanța and the expulsion of the Russian consul.

Nicușor Dan noted that Romania expects greater caution from the Russian side so that drones used to attack Ukraine do not pose a threat to the lives of Romanian citizens.

"I hope they will stop. If not – there are other measures that we can take against this (...). Forcing the ambassador out, for instance. There is a diplomatic hierarchy of measures," the Romanian president said.

Nicușor Dan reiterated that Bucharest has no doubt that the drone was a Russian Geran-2 type – because Romanian experts had already had an intact example of another device that fell on Romanian territory and failed to detonate several weeks earlier and were able to compare the debris found with it.

Dan previously said that investigators concluded the device carried at least 30 kg of explosives.

Background:

• On the night of 28-29 May, a Russian strike drone struck the roof of a residential building in Galați and exploded, breaking through it and causing a fire in a corridor of a flat on the top floor. Two residents were injured. This is currently the most serious incident in the entire period during which Russian strike drones have entered the territory of Romania and Moldova.
• Following an inspection and restoration of electricity supply, residents of the building were permitted to return home on 30 May, with the exception of the injured woman and child, who remain in a medical facility.

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Source: Third Army Corps

Quote: "Fighters from the unmanned systems battalion of the Third Assault struck enemy logistics in temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast, reaching as far as the Izvarine checkpoint – over 205 km deep into enemy-controlled territory."

Details: During the operation, Ukrainian drone operators struck Russian armoured vehicles and ammunition depots.

The successful operation was planned and led by the commander of the strike UAV platoon, a native of Luhansk Oblast who goes by the alias Skhid.

In 2022, Skhid was airlifted into the besieged Mariupol and, after the city's defence ended, made his way out to Ukrainian-controlled territory on his own, for which he was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine.

"In response to enemy claims of full capture of Luhansk Oblast, we are announcing an operation to control logistics routes in Luhansk Oblast and East Slobozhanshchyna.

Luhansk, Starobilsk, Alchevsk, Brianka, Kadiivka – are now under the drone control of the Third Army Corps," Corps Commander Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi said.

Background: On 16 April, 1st Azov Corps of Ukraine's National Guard announced that it had taken control of all Russian logistics routes near occupied Donetsk and would henceforth destroy all targets moving along these routes.

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Source: Brovdi on Facebook

Quote: "May's 18...

During May, the freedom-loving Ukrainian Bird [the Unmanned Systems Forces – ed.] marked the occupier's oil-refining industry's fiery coming of age – 18+: Moscow, Saratov, Tuapse, Volgograd, Yaroslavl, Novorossiysk, Grushovaya, Syzran, Kstovo, Ryazan, Taman, Perm, Kirishi, Samara, the Yaroslavl oil pipeline control station, Primorsk, Taganrog, the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant and Orenburg."

Details: Brovdi added that drones set crude oil and gas processing units and storage tanks on fire: "More than half of the facilities on the list were shut down or suspended operations at some point during the month."

Ukrainian forces have also struck oil depots, an oil terminal in Feodosiia, as well as a number of oil pumping stations and chemical plants in May.

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Source: Belarusian pro-government Telegram channel Pul Pervogo, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Brovdi, commenting on potential threats from Belarus, said that Ukrainian forces had already identified 500 targets in the country. He also advised Lukashenko not to "stick in Ukraine's craw". Lukashenko responded to the remarks.

"They may have identified 500 targets – thank you for that, because we have 500 targets for them. We have one very serious target, with precise coordinates, and it is located not far from Belarus. They understand that too," Lukashenko said.

The Belarusian leader also disparaged Ukrainian service members, describing them as "cannon fodder".

Quote from Lukashenko: "He says he sees 500 targets – perhaps if he is not blind, he sees even more. But he should understand that we can see who is standing on the other side of the border. These are people rounded up in the streets, poor Ukrainians, and soldiers of the so-called territorial defence forces – yesterday's workers, machine operators, collective farmers and so on. What kind of warriors are they? They are cannon fodder."

Details: He also dismissed remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding a military threat from Belarus.

Quote from Lukashenko: "The president's talk – forgive me, Volodymyr Oleksandrovych, but it is nonsense – differs from the position of the military. The Ukrainian military does not want any war with Belarus, I know that for certain. They understand that it would mean an additional thousand kilometres of front line, a border, and not an easy border between Belarus and Ukraine. Do they need that? No."

Background: During a phone conversation on 24 May, French President Emmanuel Macron warned Lukashenko against drawing his country further into Russia's war against Ukraine.

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Source: Kyiv Animal Rescue Group on Instagram

Details: Despite the efforts of volunteers and veterinarians, the cat did not survive.

The cat was found under rubble in an industrial area in Kyiv's Lukianivka district on the fourth day after the large-scale attack on 24 May. Exhausted and badly burned, she emerged from beneath the rubble.

She was named Artemida after the ancient Greek goddess of the hunt, as the name was intended to reflect the animal's determination to survive. The cat was taken to veterinarians in a critical condition.

"We really wanted to tell you a different story. About recovery. About a new home. About how she won. It was not to be. Artemida became another victim of the war," the animal rescuers wrote.

They also thanked everyone who contributed to the fundraising campaign for the cat's treatment. The money raised will be used to help other animals injured in Russian attacks.

Background: In May 2025, a cat rescued after a strike on Kyiv also died. In that incident, the animal's owners – a woman who cared for 10 cats and her son – were killed when an apartment building was hit.

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Source: Akhmetov in an interview with The Guardian

Details: Akhmetov was asked about the occupation of Mariupol and its defenders, who resisted the Russians for more than 80 days from the Azovstal steel plant. The businessman recalled how he maintained regular contact with Redis.

Quote: "I called him [Redis – ed.] several times a day and was moved by his strength and courage. I never heard panic in his voice. They were all conscientious, dignified and ready to give their lives for every inch of land. But on 20 May 2022 they had an order from higher command to surrender. I spoke with him 15 minutes before they exited Azovstal. I said: 'Denys, what can I do for you, what can I do for your guys?' He said: 'You needn't worry about me, please take care of my men.

He knew he would be subjected to captivity but didn't ask for any personal privilege. This is how the Heart of Azovstal project, which supports Mariupol's defenders and their families, came to life. I promised I'd help those guys, and I'll do whatever is possible."

Details: Akhmetov also said that he had visited Mariupol shortly before the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

He said that he had met with people from Azovstal and the Illich Iron and Steel Works and repeatedly stressed that Mariupol is part of Ukraine: "When the Russians arrived, nobody was welcoming Putin's soldiers with flowers. Even small children were taking whatever they could, stones and rocks, and were ready to fight."

The Guardian noted that the businessman gave the interview in Kyiv and is in Ukraine, although his whereabouts "have been a subject of conjecture during the war".

Akhmetov also recalled that in 2014, when the occupation began, he spoke at Donbas Arena in Donetsk, telling Kremlin-backed proxies: "You're good for nothing, you're terrorists. You need to be pushed out, you deceive the people. You bring Donbas to the grave."

Quote: "We put banners around the region with the motto: 'A happy Donetsk and happy Donbas can only be part [of] a unified Ukraine.' People ask what I would say today to those in occupied regions, and it would be exactly the same."

Background:

• Mariupol was encircled by Russian troops on 1 March 2022. From late April, the city's defenders were blockaded at the Azovstal plant, particularly members of the Azov National Guard regiment, marines, border guards and police officers. They appealed to the world for rescue: the marines called for an extraction, while Azov fighters requested at least the evacuation of wounded personnel.
• After 86 days of defending Mariupol, the defenders agreed, following the president's decision, to withdraw to territory controlled by the Russians. The withdrawal took place on 16-20 May. Russia claimed that 2,439 fighters came out from the underground of Azovstal. Representatives of the Red Cross registered the Ukrainian defenders as prisoners of war.

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Source: SOF on Facebook

Details: Located almost 1,200 km from Ukraine's border, the Lazarevo oil pipeline control station in Kirov Oblast is a key hub on the Surgut-Polotsk oil pipeline. This route transports oil from Siberia and northern Russia to the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, as well as to Belarus.

The station is also connected to the Druzhba trunk pipeline system, enabling the Russians to rapidly transfer oil between the two largest oil pipeline networks in the European part of Russia.

In a separate series of strikes, long-range drones operated by SOF deep strike units also hit the Agroprodukt oil depot in the town of Matveyev Kurgan in Rostov Oblast. The facility, located near the Ukrainian border, contains large storage tanks, road and rail loading terminals, and a pumping station.

Quote: "Strikes against the enemy's oil-processing and logistics infrastructure reduce its economic capacity to wage war against Ukraine."

Background: Local authorities and monitoring channels previously reported that drones had attacked the Lazarevo oil pipeline control station, a facility built to facilitate the transport of oil to central Russia.

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Source: CNN report featuring Vector, the commander of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine's Deep Strike unit

Details: In the report, journalists showed the process of equipping and preparing Ukrainian drones for launch. Some UAVs were fitted with warheads, while others were launched without them.

"These are decoys. We sent hundreds of them. Some are empty, some carry a payload. The payload is small, but it is enough to destroy air-defence systems," Vector said.

Details: The report also featured decoy drones and a jet-powered UAV which, Ukrainian servicemen said, appears on Russian radar as a missile.

Vector also provided details of the long-range strike control system.

"Laptops are our greatest advantage and the reason why it is so difficult for Russia to destroy this programme, because we are dispersed. We do not have centralised hubs and we operate from dozens of locations. In addition, this software allows us to work with thousands of UAVs," the commander said.

According to Vector, the software enables the simultaneous coordination of thousands of drones.

The report states that Ukraine has expanded its long-range strike capabilities against Russian territory and is increasingly using unmanned systems to wear down Russian air defence.

CNN reported that Ukraine was preparing a wave of approximately 200 attack drones that night, launched from multiple sites.

Read more: "Every third sortie results in a hit": How the 412th Nemesis brigade destroys Russian air defence with mid-range drones

Background: In early May, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video showing FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles being launched against targets in the Russian city of Cheboksary.

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Source: Oleksandr Hanzha, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration

Details: Several vehicles parked nearby also caught fire as a result of the attack. Hanzha said information on casualties is being confirmed.

No further details were provided.

Background: Since the evening of 30 May, Russian forces have launched 229 loitering munitions, including jet-powered UAVs, and decoy drones against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defences downed or jammed 212 of them, although 14 attack drone hits were reported at 11 locations.

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Source: press service for Nova Poshta, Ukraine's largest private delivery company

Details: The company reported that no employees were injured. Emergency workers and police are working at the scene, and damage assessment is ongoing.

Nova Poshta said it will compensate customers for the declared value of destroyed parcels and is already contacting them regarding reimbursement details.

The company has also adjusted its logistics routes to ensure the timely delivery of parcels.

Background: A guided aerial bomb strike damaged a building housing Nova Poshta branch No. 11. in Kramatorsk.

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Source: Oleksandr Koval, Head of Rivne Oblast Military Administration; Oleksandr Hanzha, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration

Details: Koval reported that Rivne Oblast came under a Russian aerial attack on 31 May.

He said that a disused industrial facility was targeted: "Early reports indicate that no people were injured. All the appropriate services are working at the scene."

Photos and videos circulating online showed a fire and a large column of smoke rising after the Russian attack.

Hanzha also reported on 31 May that the Russians had struck Dnipro.

He said that a fire broke out following the attack. Photos and videos circulating on social media show thick smoke and flames.

Ukraine's Air Force had warned of the threat posed by drones and ballistic missiles.

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Source: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda

Details: Zelenskyy reported that over the week, the Russians have launched 2,300 attack drones, nearly 1,560 guided aerial bombs and 108 missiles of various types against Ukraine. All of these strikes targeted civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings and energy facilities.

Quote: "Every day, we are working to ensure greater protection against Russian terror. Yesterday, we received a new IRIS-T launcher. We thank Germany for its constant contribution to protecting people; thousands upon thousands of lives have been saved thanks to such strong support."

Details: The president added that Ukraine needs additional missiles for air defence systems in order to maintain sufficient capability to repel Russian attacks.

Background:

• Zelenskyy sent a letter to US President Donald Trump and members of Congress regarding shortages of air defence capabilities.
• He also reported that during a large-scale attack on 24 May, Russia used two Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
• Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said that the US would respond to the Ukrainian president's letter regarding shortages of air defence capabilities.

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Source: Kirov Oblast Governor Alexander Sokolov; monitoring Telegram channels

Details: Sokolov reported that drones attacked a company in the Urzhum district on the morning of 31 May. "There is a fire. There are no fatalities or injuries. Emergency services are working at the scene, and the situation is under control," he said.

The Russian governor pointed out that there is a ban in the region on posting photos, videos or any information about drone strikes.

Hovewer, footage showing the consequences of the attack has been circulating online.

Monitoring Telegram channels say that the target was the Lazarevo oil pipeline control station, located in the Urzhum district.

The Lazarevo oil pipeline control station was established to facilitate the transport of Siberian oil to central Russia and later began supporting oil transit towards the port of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea.

The facility is located 1,200 km from Ukraine's state border.

Background:

• On the night of 30-31 May, loitering munitions attacked the Saratov oil refinery in Russia, causing a large fire on the facility's premises.
• In Russia's Rostov Oblast, local authorities reported a fire at a fuel storage facility following a drone attack. Earlier, monitoring Telegram channels had reported that an oil depot was burning at the site.

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Source: Rostov Oblast Governor Yuri Slyusar; Russian media outlet ASTRA

Quote from Slyusar: "Last night, as a result of an enemy aerial attack in the Matveyev Kurgan district, debris from a UAV caused a fire at a fuel storage facility belonging to a private company that supplies agricultural producers."

Details: The Russian governor said that residents of nearby houses had been evacuated.

A fire train was dispatched to the scene and began firefighting operations.

Slyusar also claimed that a pharmacy, two shops and a car had been damaged in the settlement of Matveyev Kurgan. Gas supplies were cut off.

The drone threat in Rostov Oblast remains in effect.

Firefighting efforts are still ongoing in the Matveyev Kurgan district.

Earlier reports indicated that drones had likely struck an oil depot in Matveyev Kurgan.

Background: On the night of 30-31 May, loitering munitions attacked the Saratov oil refinery in Russia, causing a large fire on the facility's premises.

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Source: State Emergency Service of Ukraine on Facebook

Details: The Russian drone struck the business in the Koriukivka district at night.

While dealing with the aftermath of the attack, emergency workers discovered the body of a 58-year-old man.

The strike also caused a fire in a car park.

Seven lorries were destroyed by the blaze.

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Source: Ukraine's Air Force

Quote: "Early reports indicate that as of 08:30, air defence units had shot down or jammed 212 enemy UAVs of the Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas and other types over the north and east of the country.

Fourteen attack UAVs hit 11 locations, and debris from downed drones fell at five locations."

Details: The Russian attack is still ongoing, with several Russian drones remaining in Ukrainian airspace.

On the night of 30-31 May (from 18:00 on 30 May), the Russians launched 229 Shahed (some of them jet-powered), Gerbera and Italmas attack UAVs, as well as Parodiya decoy drones, from the directions of Oryol, Kursk, Bryansk, Millerovo, Shatalovo and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia, and Hvardiiske in temporarily occupied Crimea.

Aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare assets, unmanned systems units and mobile fire groups from Ukraine's defence forces have been involved in repelling the attack.

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Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook

Details: The total combat losses of the Russian forces between 24 February 2022 and 31 May 2026 are estimated to be as follows [figures in parentheses represent the latest losses – ed.]:

• approximately 1,364,060 (+1,560) military personnel
• 11,962 (+2) tanks
• 24,657 (+14) armoured combat vehicles
• 42,987 (+57) artillery systems
• 1,819 (+6) multiple-launch rocket systems
• 1,399 (+1) air defence systems
• 436 (+0) fixed-wing aircraft
• 353 (+0) helicopters
• 1,519 (+19) ground robotic systems
• 320,327 (+1,894) operational-tactical UAVs
• 4,693 (+0) cruise missiles
• 33 (+0) ships/boats
• 2 (+0) submarines
• 101,237 (+524) vehicles and fuel tankers
• 4,234 (+3) special vehicles and other equipment.

The information is being confirmed.

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Beijing speaks of so-called "peaceful reunification" – the official strategy of the Chinese government for annexing Taiwan, based on the "one country, two systems" formula. Beijing offers Taiwan the preservation of its self-governance, current socio-economic model and own authorities in exchange for recognising mainland China's rule over the island. Meanwhile, however, it is rehearsing a scenario that may look anything but peaceful: Chinese military aircraft already regularly enter Taiwan's air defence identification zone, while warships patrol around its waters.

Joseph Wen has spent years thinking about exactly that scenario. A co-founder of Taiwan Defense Studies Initiative (a Taiwanese civil society organisation working to strengthen defence research and strategic awareness among Taiwan's academic community and the broader public), Wen is part of a new generation of security thinkers trying to answer the question: what would a Chinese attack on Taiwan actually look like?

In conversation with Ukrainska Pravda, Wen explains why Taiwan matters more to Washington than many Americans admit, why Beijing may prefer a blockade to an invasion, what China has learned from Russia's failures in Ukraine – and why, despite facing a very different battlefield, Taiwan sees Ukraine's experience in civil resilience as one of its most valuable lessons.

This article is produced in partnership with Lviv Media Forum 2026 and features a speaker from this year's conference.

"Taiwan is far more critical to US national interests than Ukraine"

Taiwan and Ukraine are often compared in geopolitical discussions. Do you think the comparison is accurate?

If we are analysing the military environment, I would say the comparison is not quite accurate. Ukraine is a closed battlefield (primarily ground-based warfare), whereas Taiwan is an open battlefield (primarily sea and air warfare). Therefore, the two cannot truly be compared on equal terms.

​From a geopolitical standpoint, I believe Taiwan is far more critical to US national interests than Ukraine. This ties directly to America's interests in the Pacific since World War II. If Taiwan were to be occupied by China, it would signify a total failure of US China policy since 1949. Unless the US decides to abdicate its leadership of the global order, it cannot tacitly allow China to invade Taiwan. By contrast, Russia's invasion of Ukraine feels more like an internal European affair to the present-day United States.

Some voices in the United States actually argue Washington should focus more on Taiwan than on Ukraine. Do you feel US support for Taiwan has strengthened since 2022?

I believe that while the US remains unchanged at the strategic level, its tactical support for Taiwan has significantly increased.

​For instance, we are seeing a growing number of US military instructors arriving in Taiwan, and the volume of Taiwanese servicemen sent to the United States for advanced training has risen noticeably. These are tangible proofs of stronger tactical backing.

Donald Trump recently visited China and then said that the US won't defend Taiwan and are halting weapons deliveries to the island because Taiwan wants to start a war against China. Do you still trust the US while Trump is president?

I actually believe that for Taiwan, trusting the US is not a matter of choosing "to trust" or "not to trust". The US is currently the only nation in the world that sells weapons to Taiwan, our sole military ally, and our only "powerful" ally.

Consequently, we do not have much leverage or choice – this is the destiny of a small nation. However, positioned between the US and China, Taiwan is also presented with numerous opportunities and possibilities, which ultimately tests the wisdom of Taiwan's leadership.

​I believe that as a n independent nation (or one that prides itself on being so), Taiwan cannot expect other countries to offer unconditional aid simply because we refuse to be ruled by China or because we possess a democratic system. Nor can we take American support for granted or view it as an obligation.

In other words, Taiwan must bolster its societal resilience and demonstrate a firm commitment to self-defence to the democratic world. To put it bluntly, given Trump's background as a businessman, I would say we need to "play to his interests".

At the same time, we must not be overly provocative toward China, nor should we completely sever all forms of exchange. This approach allows us to manage the risk of conflict with China while maintaining strong ties with the democratic world, all while waiting for strategic opportunities that favour Taiwan to emerge.

"Current China's policy towards Taiwan remains focused primarily on 'peaceful unification'"

How serious do you think the risk of military conflict over Taiwan is in the near future?

If "military conflict" refers to a full-scale war, I would argue it is highly unlikely to happen. However, if it refers to an "unintentional or accidental conflict", I believe the probability is quite high.

​The reasoning is that Beijing does not have a rigid timetable for a military unification of Taiwan; its current policy toward Taiwan remains focused primarily on "peaceful unification".

However, China regularly exerts military pressure on Taiwan, compressing its maritime and air space. As a result, encounters between the maritime and air forces of both sides are becoming increasingly frequent. While this may not escalate into a full-scale war, the probability of an unpredictable, sudden military clash is actively rising.

This is actually a form of strategic waiting – essentially holding their ground until a situation emerges that is absolutely advantageous to them.

​During this waiting period, their primary strategy is to gain wider international recognition for their "One China" policy while maintaining continuous military pressure on Taiwan. They are attempting to "accumulate small victories into a major victory". Because the stakes of a full-scale war are incredibly high, I agree that this "grey zone" approach is indeed the best strategy China can pursue at the moment.

​Some analysts argue China is preparing not necessarily for an invasion, but for a blockade. How seriously does Taiwan take that possibility?

Taiwan's Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) are absolutely vital. If Taiwan's external maritime trade routes are severed, the island will immediately face a critical energy crisis.

​Because of this vulnerability, Taiwan has begun developing its own indigenous submarine programme in recent years, alongside deploying land-based anti-ship missiles, largely because the Taiwanese Navy cannot currently acquire adequate regional air-defence vessels. These initiatives have already achieved preliminary results, so I would say the Taiwanese government takes this possibility very seriously.

Could China attempt a "decapitation strike" targeting Taiwan's political and military leadership first?

I think that would be extremely difficult. Unlike Venezuela, Taiwan is a robust democracy with an established system for leadership succession, meaning the strategic utility of a decapitation strike is not very high.

​Consequently, I do not believe China would attempt this prior to a war. Instead, they are more likely to utilise legal warfare – such as unilaterally declaring Taiwan's leaders as "separatist criminals" – to seize the moral high ground and shape the international narrative that China is merely exercising domestic law enforcement over Taiwan.

"A surprise blitzkrieg is highly unlikely"

Which Chinese military capability has improved most dramatically in recent years and worries Taiwanese defence planners the most?

The weapon system that has given the Taiwanese military the biggest headache in recent years is China's long-range rocket artillery. The PLA (People's Liberation Army) has heavily expanded its long-range rocket artillery units recently.

​These weapons are incredibly cheap and available in massive quantities. In a conflict, they could be used to rapidly deplete Taiwan's highly expensive air-defence ammunition in a very short window, and Taiwan currently lacks a highly cost-effective strategy to counter this.

In your view, what is China learning from Russia's war against Ukraine?

It's not just China; every country in the world has witnessed the sheer power and vital importance of drones in the war in Ukraine.

​From my own observations, since the outbreak of the war, the PLA has frequently initiated small-scale drone training operations, and in April 2024, they officially incorporated small-scale drone operations into the PLA's official training syllabus.

How do you think Beijing reacted to the Russian military's performance?

I think everyone shares the exact same view regarding the Russian military's performance: it was terrible.

​This display has undoubtedly made Beijing far more conservative regarding the potential use of force against Taiwan. For example, the war in Ukraine proved that relying solely on ballistic missile strikes to permanently knock out enemy airfields is not nearly as effective as previously assumed.

​Putin threatened to take Kyiv in three days. What would the first 24-72 hours of a Chinese operation against Taiwan likely look like?

​Because the Taiwan Strait is primarily a sea and air battlefield, a surprise blitzkrieg is highly unlikely – military movements on that scale are simply impossible to hide.

​Therefore, I believe that in the days leading up to an attack, China would use "military exercises" as a pretext to legitimise its troop deployments around Taiwan and mask its actual force mobilisation.

"Ukraine's experience in building civil defence is invaluable to Taiwan"

Yes, we've already seen such "military exercises", when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. What lessons did Taiwan immediately draw from it?

The core lesson was the critical importance of societal defence resilience. Initially, many people (including myself) assumed Kyiv was doomed. But the Ukrainian people proved that their will to resist was far more powerful than anyone anticipated.

​Of course, this resilience didn't happen by accident; since Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine began building a comprehensive civil defence system and public education programme. This is a crucial lesson Taiwan must learn. China will not act like Russia by seizing one piece of territory and waiting years before launching a full invasion; if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it will be a full-scale conflict from day one. Because there will be very little reaction time, Ukraine's experience in building civil defence is invaluable to Taiwan.

Does Taiwan cooperate with Ukraine in studying modern warfare lessons?

At the official military level, the possibility of cooperation is currently zero. This is partly due to Taiwan's lack of formal diplomatic recognition, and partly because Ukraine's foreign policy toward Taiwan has historically been very conservative. Therefore, I believe any meaningful engagement needs to start by deepening civil society and NGO exchanges.

Taiwan often talks about an "asymmetric defence strategy". What does that mean in practice?

In reality, there isn't a 100% consensus within Taiwan regarding what asymmetric warfare should look like. The most controversial component is the domestic submarine programme, which consumes a massive portion of the defence budget, and there is ongoing debate about whether it will yield an effective combat capability.

​However, areas with little to no controversy include the development of drones and land-based anti-ship missiles.

Your organisation focuses on strengthening civil society's understanding of defence. Why is that as important as military preparedness?

Military and PLA studies are incredibly niche and unpopular fields among Taiwanese youth. Compared to the ruling party and the military leadership, young people do not easily perceive the immediate threat posed by China.

​Our goal is to build a defence-focused discussion community specifically for Taiwan's youth. Older generations are difficult to persuade, so starting with the youth is a much more viable path. Almost no one has tried this in Taiwan before, but it is our mission.

​However, many NGOs are working incredibly hard to promote civil education. Their primary focus is pushing for "China literacy" – helping young Taiwanese truly understand what kind of regime the Chinese Communist Party actually is, so that their first introduction to China isn't coming strictly from TikTok.

Isn't TikTok banned in Taiwan?​

TikTok is not banned in Taiwan, though the Xiaohongshu app [the Chinese alternative to Instagram – UP] is. TikTok in Taiwan is rife with misinformation, and I believe adolescents are the most heavily impacted – as is likely the case in every country.

Because Taiwan is a democracy, the legal procedures required to ban an app are incredibly complex. Therefore, I believe what we can do instead is foster students' China literacy. During my school years, our textbooks only taught us about the traditional separation of powers and Taiwan's five-branch democratic system, while offering very little content on the Chinese Communist Party. I believe we must enable students to better understand China through their school curriculum.

What does "whole-of-society defence" mean in Taiwan in practical terms?

"Whole-of-Society Defence Resilience" is a cornerstone policy introduced by the [President] Lai Ching-te administration. The most critical objective of this policy is to ensure that ordinary citizens do not become a burden to society during a national emergency and, ideally, are equipped to help others.

​Even if a nation possesses superior military hardware, if the public panics and society fractures, military operations lose the domestic momentum required to sustain themselves.

If China never invades Taiwan, but Taiwan spends decades preparing for it, would that still count as success?

No one can truly answer whether China will definitely invade Taiwan one day. However, I have always believed that when it comes to a Chinese invasion, "if you prepare for it, it won't happen; if you don't, it will".

​We can go a hundred years without a war, but we cannot afford a single day without defence readiness. We live in a realistic and brutal world; how much weight you carry at the negotiating table depends entirely on your military strength and your economic leverage.

Source: monitoring Telegram channels

Details: Explosions were reported in the city at around 03:00. Local residents posted photos and videos showing several fire outbreaks and a thick column of smoke rising above the refinery. Early reports indicate that the refinery's isomerisation unit was hit.

Local authorities have not yet commented on the consequences of the attack. Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin only reported a drone threat in the region.

The Saratov oil refinery is part of the Rosneft oil company and is one of the oldest oil-processing facilities in the Volga region. It supplies fuel to the Russian forces.

There have also been reports of a strike on an oil depot in the settlement of Matveyev Kurgan in Rostov Oblast.

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