Leaked classified documents: neither side will triumph in war in Ukraine

According to the classified US materials that leaked online recently, the war between Ukraine and Russia is expected to last until 2024, with neither side winning, but both refusing to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Source: The Washington Post with reference to the"leaked" classified US intelligence materials

Details: The newspaper notes that even if Ukraine regains significant territories and inflicts "significant losses on Russian troops," which, according to US intelligence, is unlikely, the country's gains will not lead to peace talks.

"Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 in all considered scenarios," says the document, which has not been disclosed previously.

The assessment, based on a thorough US study of the number of troops, weapons, and equipment on each side, could encourage critics of the war who have called on major powers such as the United States and China to push Kyiv and Moscow to resolve and end the conflict, which has displaced millions of people and killed and wounded hundreds of thousands more.

In addition to predicting a costly open conflict, the newly released document also foresees how Ukrainian and Russian military leaders will respond to challenges on the battlefield, predicting that the year will end with only "minor" territorial gains for both sides as a result of "insufficient troops and supplies for effective operations."

The article points out that such a stalemate, where neither side achieves a decisive advantage, is described in the document as "the most likely scenario."

For the Ukrainian side, a war of attrition will lead to disappointment within the country and "criticism" of the way the war is being conducted, which will increase the likelihood of a change of leadership, the document says.

The WP notes that it is unclear whether we are talking about a military or a political change.

The stalemate will also lead to Ukraine announcing "full mobilisation" of the population, the document predicts.

At the same time, it is also likely to step up strikes on Russian territory, which has some US officials worried that such attacks could force President Vladimir Putin to escalate or give China a pretext to begin lethal support for Russia.

As for the Russian side, the stalemate will force Moscow to use "degraded reserves due to dwindling combat power," the document says. The Kremlin is also likely to accelerate efforts to integrate the seized territories into Russia.

Background:

• On 7 April, The New York Times, citing sources in the White House, reported a data leak: allegedly classified military documents detailing US and NATO plans to build up the Ukrainian army before a planned counteroffensive appeared on Twitter and Telegram. More and more documents are appearing in the media.
• Bellingcat investigators found that the classified data was distributed on 1 and 2 March on a Discord server called WowMao, but the original source may be even earlier.
• Associated Press journalists talked to users of the Discord platform and they found out that the secret documents were allegedly distributed by a user with the nickname "Lucca", who may be a "child."
• The UK Defence Ministry warned of a "serious level of inaccuracy" in allegedly leaked US classified documents relating to the war in Ukraine.
• The US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the leak of a huge number of US intelligence documents, and the US State Department has stated that the incident with the publication of classified documents will not affect support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.
• According to media reports, the leak of classified documents caused a crisis in relations between the United States and its allies.

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