US and partner assistance is vital for Ukraine – ISW

Military aid from the United States and Western partners will be crucial for Ukraine in the short term to build its own defence industrial base (DIB).

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts believe that the US remains the primary source of the bulk of essential military equipment – such as M1 Abrams tanks, armoured personnel carriers, advanced Patriot air defence systems, and long-range strike systems – that has been a priority in previous US aid packages.

ISW noted that as European partners further expand their support for Ukraine, US assistance in the near to medium term remains vital to help Ukraine build its DIB.

ISW further assessed that the US will no longer need to send large security assistance packages to Ukraine indefinitely, provided that Ukraine successfully pursues its efforts to domestically produce its own weapons, build bilateral and international defence industry partnerships, and establish joint industrial ventures with Western partners.

The United States will need to support Ukraine for several years while it develops its own DIB. However, Ukraine's needs for international protection will diminish in the long term as it builds its own capabilities to become self-sufficient.

ISW stressed that the ultimate success of Ukraine's efforts to build its DIB, however, depends on Ukraine's ability to liberate strategically important territories currently occupied by Russian forces.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 6 February:

• America’s European and Asian allies have significantly ramped up their efforts to support Ukraine. As European partners continue to increase their support for Ukraine, US aid provision in the near to medium-term remains vital to help Ukraine build its defence industrial base (DIB).
• The US Army plans to significantly increase US domestic production of 155 mm artillery shells and shell components for Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, should the proposed Congressional supplemental appropriations bill pass.
• Russian authorities are reportedly paying Iran roughly US$4.5 billion per year to import Iranian Shahed drones to use in Ukraine.
• Russia is reportedly unfreezing North Korean assets and helping North Korea evade international sanctions in exchange for missiles and artillery ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
• Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev emphasised on 6 February that Russia needs to protect its strategic facilities as Russian authorities continue to voice concerns about external and internal threats to Russian infrastructure.
• The Kremlin continues to set informational conditions for possible hybrid provocations against the Baltic states and Georgia.
• Russian-Israeli relations are likely continuing to decline against the backdrop of Russia’s increasingly anti-Israel stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and to seek international recognition of Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine.

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