Putin does not want war with NATO and will limit himself to "asymmetric activity" – US intelligence

Russian President Vladimir Putin almost certainly does not want a direct confrontation with NATO and will limit himself to hybrid warfare.

Source: a report published by US intelligence 

Details: The intelligence community stated that the war unleashed against Ukraine had resulted in major problems for Russia, but it remains a resilient and capable rival, is trying to mitigate the effects of sanctions on its economy, and is strengthening ties with key adversaries of the United States and the West in general – China, Iran and North Korea – which is a major challenge for the West.

The intelligence community has assessed that Moscow almost certainly does not want a direct military clash with NATO and will limit itself to "asymmetric activity" that it expects to not cross the line and draw others into the conflict.

"President Vladimir Putin probably believes that Russia has blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory, that his approach to winning the war is paying off, and that Western and US support to Ukraine is finite, particularly in light of the Israel-Hamas war," the report notes.

The intelligence noted that close economic cooperation with Beijing provides Russia with a large market for energy and other resources, greater protection from future sanctions, and a strong partner to counter the United States.  

Russia has managed to divert a larger share of its maritime oil exports, and it is likely that much of it is sold at prices higher than the G7 price cap, thanks to cooperation with non-Western partners and the fact that prices rose last year. 

The intelligence believes that Moscow will continue to use "all applicable sources of national power" to advance its interests and attempt to undermine the influence of the United States and its allies, although the cut-off from Western markets and technologies and the flight of "human capital" will be a challenge. 

Quote: "This will range from using energy to try to coerce cooperation and weaken Western unity on Ukraine, to military and security intimidation, malign influence, cyber operations. espionage, and subterfuge."

Background:

• Lithuanian intelligence had previously estimated that Russia could fight in Ukraine for at least two more years.
• UK intelligence said that Russia is using Iranian drones to prevent attacks on its vessels.

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