Russian forces to change targets and intensify strikes in coming weeks – ISW

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced Russia's intention to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt the logistics of the Ukrainian military. ISW believes that Russian forces are likely to step up their drone and missile strikes in the coming weeks to maximise damage to Ukraine's infrastructure and defence industrial base before US aid arrives.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts suggest that the focus of Shoigu's talk on strikes on Ukrainian logistics suggests that Russian forces may be shifting their target set to hit Ukrainian transport infrastructure, logistics and military storage facilities.

Russian troops are likely to intensify their current offensive operations in the coming weeks to exploit the limitations of the Ukrainian forces in terms of materiel ahead of the arrival of US security assistance.

Shoigu's focus on Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, west of Avdiivka, and west and southwest of Donetsk City further indicates that Russian forces are likely to intensify their offensive in these areas.

Russian forces conducted heavy attacks on Ukrainian transport infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 19 April and may intend to repeat and expand these attacks in the coming weeks to cut off Ukrainian lines of communication.

Russian military commanders may hope that coordinated disruption efforts will limit Ukraine's ability to sufficiently distribute manpower and supplies to critical areas of the front and delay the improved capabilities that the arrival of US security assistance will provide to Ukrainian forces.

To quote ISW's Key Takeaways on 23 April:

• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
• Shoigu also discussed ongoing Russian military reforms during his 23 April MoD collegium address, cloaking ongoing expansion efforts in an information operation meant to falsely frame all Russian military activity as inherently defensive and responsive to supposed NATO aggression.
• Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian travelled to St. Petersburg on 23 April to attend the 12th Russian International Security Summit.
• The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to align itself more closely with Iran over the backdrop of intensifying bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran.
• United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest-ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around US$662 million) on 23 April.
• Moldovan authorities confiscated over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport on the night of 22 to 23 April, and the opposition politicians likely intended to use it to bribe protestors and voters.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor is blocking 150 virtual private network (VPN) services in Russia, another step in the Kremlin’s efforts to further censor and control the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian drone strikes and recent flooding in Russia have reportedly brought weekly Russian oil refining to an 11-month low, although the decrease in refining output has so far been marginal.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Russian forces recently advanced near Donetsk City.
• Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to complain about the ineffectiveness of Russian drones on the battlefield.

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