Russian Defence Ministry may have more interest in Prigozhin’s death than Putin – ISW report

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has suggested that the Russian Ministry of Defence may be more interested in the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, than the Russian president, or that this is a way to "whitewash" Putin.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW noted that Russia's Investigative Committee announced on 27 August that genetic testing had confirmed that Yevgeny Prigozhin was among the 10 people who died in a plane crash on 23 August.

Russia's so-called military bloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defence had been actively pushing for the termination of Wagner Group's activities in the Middle East and Africa even before Prigozhin's death.

As one of the Russian military bloggers said, representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defence are afraid to put direct pressure on Wagnerites during negotiations and instead are putting pressure on Middle Eastern and African officials to cut their ties with the private military company.

Analysts have concluded that the Russian Ministry of Defence may be more interested in dismantling the Wagner Group than Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The ISW cannot confirm the authenticity of these reports, but if they are true, it may indicate that Putin is not in charge of the process of disbanding the Wagner Group, but has transferred this responsibility to the Russian Ministry of Defence.

However, the surge of such reports in the Russian communities of military bloggers and so-called opposition activists may also be an attempt to distance Putin from the Prigozhin murder and the possible breakup of the Wagner Group. 

It is noted in the report that Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the border area between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, against the background of Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Quote: "The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire."

"Russian forces committed a considerable amount of materiel, effort and manpower to hold the series of defensive positions that Ukrainian forces are currently penetrating, and it is unclear if Russian forces will retain the advantages they have held if they cannot commit the same level of resources and personnel to these next layers of defence. 

The next Russian defensive layer will, nevertheless, very likely pose significant challenges for the Ukrainian advance."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 27 August:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk Oblast-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern and eastern Ukraine.
• The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire.
• Russian forces conducted missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on the night of 26-27 August and reportedly targeted a Ukrainian airfield in Kyiv Oblast.
• The Russian Investigative Committee announced on 27 August that genetic tests confirm that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was among 10 people killed in a plane crash on 23 August.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defence had been actively setting conditions to halt Wagner Group’s operations in the Middle East and Africa prior to Prigozhin’s death on 23 August.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence may be more intensely focused on disbanding the Wagner Group than Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast but did not make confirmed advances.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to coerce migrants and foreigners living in Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian citizenship.

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