Slow progress and heavy losses: UK intelligence doubts Russia will capture Avdiivka
UK intelligence has stated that Russia has launched a coordinated offensive on several fronts in the east of Ukraine.
Source: UK Defence Intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence for 17 October on Twitter (X), as reported by European Pravda
Details: UK Defence Intelligence notes that the Russian army's slow progress and heavy losses in the offensive on Avdiivka have led to a change in the wording used in Russia’s messages, from offensive to "active defence", since the capture of the city in the short term looks less likely.
Russia needs a combined offensive on Avdiivka to overcome obstacles in the way of Russian troops to their broader goal of establishing control over Donetsk Oblast, UK intelligence notes.
The review points out that the Russian offensive on the city is likely to be carried out by several armoured battalions trying to surround the city.
Quote: "It is likely to be the most significant offensive operation undertaken by Russia since at least January 2023," UK Defence Intelligence concludes.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 17 October 2023.
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 17, 2023
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/LRafxn8hYV
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/96kwVqt4RV
Background:
- The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reported that on the Avdiivka front, the Russian Federation has continued its attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian soldiers have repelled more than 10 Russian attacks over the past day.
- Earlier, UK intelligence reported on the activities of the private military company Redut, which has effectively replaced the Wagner Group in the contact zone in Ukraine.
- In a previous review, UK intelligence reported that Ukrainian armed forces could hit the new railway line to Mariupol which the Russian Federation is currently building in the occupied Ukrainian territories.
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