A Big American Political Storm is Brewing for Ukraine
By Doug Klain and Nana Gongadze
Ever since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Ukraine has enjoyed bipartisan support, a rarity in Washington. But unless Ukraine’s allies immediately adjust to new political realities, the situation threatens to drastically change. The most recent political developments in Washington show that support for Ukraine is getting politicized more quickly than Ukraine’s friends expected – and there are indications that it is only going to get worse.
In the short term, US President Joe Biden and Ukraine’s allies in both parties in Congress have a straightforward goal: pass a significant aid package for Ukraine through Congress, guaranteeing funds that last through America's 2024 election next November. But Biden also faces a difficult political choice as to just how vocal he should be about backing Ukraine as partisanship flares, and as other security issues, like US support for Israel, need Washington’s attention.
The next few weeks are likely to be some of the most chaotic in recent history for the US Congress. Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s ousting is the first time a Speaker of the House of Representatives has been forced from leadership, and it effectively shuts down Congress until a new speaker is elected by other members. That also means that no Ukraine aid can be authorized by Congress until the impasse ends, and any prospects for new aid will be highly dependent on who the next speaker is. Chaos in the Middle East further complicates and adds urgency to the speaker’s race.
The intra-Republican contest remains chaotic, with one of the top candidates to replace McCarthy, Rep. Jim Jordan – a stalwart ally of former president Donald Trump – expressing skepticism about immediately authorizing more aid for Ukraine. Whoever steps into the role may be on even shakier political ground than McCarthy was, who was already forced to answer to the few, loud, farthest-right members in his party that showed they can bring down a leader who runs afoul of them.
Biden is smart to consider pivoting his original request for $24 billion for Ukraine from Congress for a bigger package to guarantee US assistance through the end of 2024, likely totaling close to $100 billion. This will help Congress avoid having to repeatedly fight over Ukraine every few months. Reports indicate that Senators are open to passing such a package. There are also reports that a package combining Ukraine and Israel aid may be introduced.
While aiding Ukraine was only one of several political squabbles that imploded Congress in recent weeks, the incident should be viewed as a warning shot – if Ukraine and its allies do not recalibrate their advocacy, support for Ukraine is about to get more politicized and less bipartisan in America.
None of Ukraine’s friends are likely to win the GOP nomination for the presidency. The early signs of this have already been apparent in the primary contest to win the Republican nomination for president. Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy have all led in the polls and have all shown hostility towards aiding Ukraine.
Trump still leads the pack by far, and he will most likely be the Republican nominee for president next year. After he becomes the official nominee of the Republican party, most Republicans in Congress and around the country will likely fall in line with his policies, including on Ukraine.
Things will get even uglier and more complicated in America during next year’s rematch between Trump and Biden, and the political implications of any decision about Ukraine will become a much bigger factor. With the 2024 NATO summit taking place in Washington only a week before the Republican National Convention, when Trump will likely be nominated, Americans are unlikely to be focused on Ukraine or trying to advance Ukraine’s NATO aspirations.
Presidential elections have a habit of making every issue in American politics a partisan lightning rod. Worryingly, polling is already showing that support for Ukraine is becoming more of a "Democrat" issue than a commonsense policy in America’s interest. Biden and Ukraine’s other friends in America must work overtime to ensure Ukraine remains a bipartisan priority. The divide is there, but partisan firebrands in the Republican party have not yet made it politically toxic for others in the party to support Ukraine – at least not yet.
Last week, Biden announced an upcoming "major" speech "to unite America as to why it is so important to support Ukraine." Right now, Washington is heavily focused on responding to events in Israel and the Middle East, Israel being a higher priority than Ukraine for many Americans. When Biden does address Ukraine, his remarks will be key to gauging his approach to the politics of further aid.
Biden’s re-election campaign has released TV ads touting his leadership in rallying the world to support Ukraine against the Russian invasion. His impulse to go all-in on supporting Ukraine may be present, but fears of "starting World War III" have held the administration back from giving Ukraine everything it needs to win, such as ATACMS long-range missiles.
In the months ahead, pro-Ukraine voices in the US have the opportunity to rally support for Ukraine and try to make it more resilient to the partisan pressures coming in 2024. President Biden must work harder to persuade voters that it is indeed both morally right and in the interest of American families that Ukraine emerge victorious. Polling results from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and from our organization Razom for Ukraine show that Americans are persuadable on this issue.
Passing a major aid package to fulfill Ukraine’s needs until 2025 is a smart move for the moment, with Congress debating the issue now rather than in the middle of an election year. Another initiative worth pushing for is transferring to Ukraine those Russian state assets that the US and our G7 allies have frozen. Though the US does not hold the majority of these assets, American leadership on the issue will be vital to getting European allies on board. Biden’s special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery, Penny Pritzker, has already signaled openness to the move, and it’s likely to be an attractive policy for American political candidates to push – "make Putin pay for it" sounds great in a campaign speech.
Biden fears that announcing Ukraine can join NATO when the war ends will incentivize Russia to prolong the war. This makes the chances that Ukraine will receive a formal invitation into NATO at next year’s Washington Summit unlikely. Even so, creative thinking about further integration of Ukraine into the alliance is already happening in Washington. For example, a recent proposal from over 40 US national security experts released by the Atlantic Council suggests the accession process be flipped, with Ukraine and NATO starting to take the technical steps for eventual Ukrainian membership now and sidestep the temporary political dilemma of a formal invitation.
Recognizing these realities will be crucial to ensuring continued support for Ukraine. The political landscape is changing in America. Ukraine and her friends in Washington need to get creative in how they advocate and what they advocate for. Holding further politicization of aid for Ukraine at bay is critical to ensuring Ukrainians have the tools they need for the next year.
Doug Klain is a policy analyst at Razom for Ukraine and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council where he focuses on Russia’s war on Ukraine, international security, and democracy. Prior to joining Razom, he worked from 2019-2022 as an assistant director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. Klain frequently writes for publications such as Foreign Policy and The New Republic. He has been interviewed by news outlets including CNN, Deutsche Welle, and BBC World News. Klain received his bachelor’s degree from DePaul University in Political Science and a master’s in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Nana Gongadze is the Head of Advocacy Communications on Razom’s Advocacy Team. Previously, she worked in communications in the nonprofit, museum, and media industries, such as at Axios, the Smithsonian Institution, and the National Museum of Women in the Arts. She has a bachelor’s degree from American University in public relations and art history.
