Russia to cut defence spending in 2026 but sharply boost propaganda funding – ISW

An analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has shown that in 2026 the Kremlin plans to reduce spending on defence and social payments to the military, while sharply increasing funding for state propaganda.

Source: ISW's analysis of the draft Russian federal budget for 2026-2028, submitted by the government to the State Duma on 29 September

Details: According to the draft budget, in 2026 Russia plans to allocate around 17 trillion roubles (US$183 billion) to the defence sector. While the overall share of expenditure in the budget will slightly decrease (from 41% in 2025 to 38% in 2026), a closer look at individual items reveals the Kremlin's true priorities.

National defence will be allocated 12.9 trillion roubles (US$155 billion) in 2026, compared to 13.5 trillion in 2025.

Funding for domestic security forces (police, intelligence services), by contrast, will increase to 3.9 trillion roubles (US$47 billion) compared with 3.5 trillion (US$42 billion) in 2025.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing war and mobilisation measures, the draft budget foresees a significant reduction in social guarantees for service members and their families. Compensation payments to the deceased, wounded and their families will fall from 78 billion roubles in 2025 to 58 billion roubles (US$698 million). Funding for the Defenders of the Fatherland fund, which supports veterans, will be cut by more than half – from 34.7 billion roubles to 13.9 billion roubles (US$167 million).

Thus, in 2026 Russia plans to reduce "military" spending by around 200 billion roubles (US$2.4 billion) compared with 2025.

Despite this, the Kremlin will significantly increase funding for state television propaganda. In 2026 the Russian government plans to spend 106.4 billion roubles (US$1.28 billion) on state TV channels, one and a half times more than in 2025 (US$69.1).

Quote: "The Russian 2025 budget allocated 4.5 billion roubles (US$47 million) and 49 million roubles (US$511,000) towards the Solovyov Live Telegram channel and Readovka online news aggregator, respectively, likely as part of the Russian government's efforts to adapt its propaganda to social media. The significant rise in funding toward television in 2026 suggests that the Kremlin is returning to traditional methods of disseminating state propaganda, particularly against the backdrop of recent restrictions on social media, and the creation of the Russian state messenger Max."

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