Politico: Some leaders divided over Ukraine's EU accession

The vision of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for a significantly enlarged European Union that includes Ukraine is running into a major obstacle: many current member states are reluctant to even discuss it.

Source: European Pravda, citing Politico, a Brussels-based politics and policy news organisation

Details: Politico says fear of fuelling populism, the prospect of national referendums on each new member and the collective experience of dealing with Hungary since its accession in 2004 are all contributing to resistance to EU enlargement in several capitals.

The accession of new members was expected to be included on the agenda of the EU summit in Nicosia later this month.

However, according to a senior EU official involved in preparations, the issue is now unlikely to be discussed due to mixed views among leaders.

"Enlargement must remain demanding and merit-based to ensure its success and credibility," France's minister delegate for European affairs, Benjamin Haddad, told Politico.

Sources told Politico that governments are particularly concerned about domestic political backlash if leaders bring up EU enlargement at the national level.

Officials also fear a repeat of debates similar to those surrounding Poland's accession in 2004, when concerns were raised in Western Europe about cheaper Polish labour replacing higher-paid jobs.

"The same semi-populist, semi-xenophobic arguments we heard about the Poles, we are likely to hear with the Ukrainians and any other candidate. Who are these people? What are they going to be doing in our club? Will they be coming to take our jobs?" said a diplomat from a mid-size EU country.

This concern is especially strong in France, where the law requires a referendum on admitting any new EU member.

EU diplomats have also said that Germany, the Netherlands and Italy insist on adhering to the EU's rigorous merit-based accession procedure, rejecting any shortcuts for geopolitical reasons, while acknowledging the urgency driving countries such as Ukraine and Moldova to seek rapid accession.

In addition, admitting new members carries the risk of bringing in other "Trojan horse" capitals that could use veto powers. For this reason, the Commission is seeking to safeguard the enlargement process from a so-called "Hungarian effect", for example by stripping new members of veto rights for several years after accession.

However, even Montenegro, which has completed almost all the steps required to join, is facing difficulties, as EU countries cannot agree on the next stage – granting a mandate to begin drafting an accession treaty.

"It's still in negotiations," said a EU diplomat.

Three Montenegrin officials said they are frustrated due to the lack of progress, pointing to France as a likely obstacle. French officials, in turn, rejected these claims, arguing that Paris is not the only country raising concerns and is calling for a broader debate on enlargement.

This deadlock is also a problem for Ukraine, which views EU membership as a security guarantee against future Russian aggression.

However, EU countries are not prepared to admit Ukraine next year, and ambassadors strongly opposed a radical approach to accession timelines during a dinner in early March.

Ukraine's strongest supporters, including Sweden and Denmark, are now calling for negotiations to be wrapped up by the end of next year. But launching accession treaty talks requires agreement from major EU members, which remains a significant challenge.

"We are not there yet," a senior EU official said.

Background:

• European Pravda reported that during an informal meeting of the General Affairs Council in Lviv, Ukraine's west, on 11 December, the EU announced the launch of a new format of technical negotiations with Ukraine that does not depend on Hungary's veto.
• European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said earlier that Ukraine is not at a dead end in its EU accession process. See also the commissioner's interview explaining this point.

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