Ukrainian exports partially rerouted via alternative pathways

Due to Russian pressure on Ukraine's maritime corridor, Ukrainian traders have begun redirecting some of their wheat and other cargo towards the Danube, though most exporters are not prepared to compensate for the loss of the sea route at any cost and are taking a wait-and-see approach.

Source: Association of International Freight Forwarders of Ukraine on Telegram

Details: The first signs of increased activity have appeared on the Danube, with part of the wheat and other cargo gradually being redirected there.

However, exporters are not prepared to compensate for the loss of the sea route at any cost and are taking a wait-and-see approach, banking on the restoration of the ports rather than more expensive overland logistics.

No sharp shift has occurred either to the Danube or to western road crossings.

Despite the availability of alternative logistics routes, they are unable to fully compensate for the capacity of the ports of Greater Odesa, which handled almost 97.2 million tonnes of cargo in 2024, averaging 8.1 million tonnes a month. [Greater Odesa is a logistical and industrial hub in Odesa Oblast that combines three major ports – Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi – ed.]

Exports by rail and road to the EU are limited by the capacity of border crossings and the railway. According to analysts at Barva Invest, the ceiling for monthly shipments reached via this route has been approximately 900,000 tonnes a month.

According to Ukrainian Shipping Magazine, the Danube can handle 1.3 million tonnes a month, but it is also in a risk zone. It is currently constrained by draught limits (falling water levels, with the Bystre estuary at 5.5m), vulnerable approach bridges, and a shortage of vessels following a period of inactivity.

The port of Constanța in Romania could once again become a key artery for Ukrainian cargo, but it is entering its own busy season with its own commitments – Ukrainian cargo will be competing for barges, warehouses, rail capacity and processing time.

Background:

• As of 23 July, inbound vessel traffic to Ukraine's Black Sea ports has been suspended due to the threat of Russian attacks.
• This followed weeks of air attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
• Maersk is suspending its services at the port of Chornomorsk due to intensified Russian strikes on port infrastructure.

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