Global agricultural prices could rise by 30% due to blockade of Ukrainian ports – agriculture minister

A prolonged blockade of Ukrainian ports could cause global agricultural commodity prices to rise by up to 30%.

Source: Agriculture and Food Minister Taras Vysotskyi in an interview with Ukrainian public broadcaster hromadske

Details: Meanwhile, Vysotskyi noted that the main wave of price increases will begin after the harvest season ends.

"There is a large harvest this year, so we are not seeing any major impact on prices yet. Unlike in 2022, when exports stopped in March, when stocks were already being drawn down, the impact on prices was immediate. So if this situation continues for another few months, it will definitely have an effect.

We estimate that prices could rise by as much as 30%. In 2022, prices across all food products rose by an average of 24.5%. But for some products, they even doubled," he said.

Vysotskyi said that if the port blockade continues, up to 30 million tonnes of agricultural products may fail to reach international markets.

However, low grain prices on Ukraine's domestic market do not automatically mean cheaper bread and other food products. The minister explained that there is a time lag between changes in raw material costs and finished product prices, and that fuel, electricity, and logistics costs also affect prices.

He believes that if exports do not resume, prices for finished agricultural products in Ukraine will stop rising in the autumn. Whether prices will actually fall will depend on other factors.

Background: Vysotskyi previously said that Ukrainian agricultural exports could fall to 1.33 million tonnes in August 2026, down 54% from July. This would be the lowest figure for August since the start of the full-scale war.

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