Pro-Russian party leads in elections in Republika Srpska

According to early vote counts, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, led by pro-Russian politician Milorad Dodik, has come out ahead in the elections in Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina's predominantly Serb entity. Meanwhile, in the country's other entity, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, three of the four leading parties that have received the most votes so far hold a clear pro-Ukrainian stance.

Source: Bosnia and Herzegovinian web portal Klix.ba

Details: According to preliminary results reported by Klix.ba, with results processed from 89.45% of polling stations, the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) is leading in the parliamentary elections to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina's House of Representatives, having secured 30.63%, which amounts to more than 212,000 votes. The Federation is the country's predominantly Bosniak and Croat entity.

The Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SDP) is in second place with 15.27% (over 105,000 votes), while the coalition formed around the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) is in third place with 13.89% (over 96,000 votes). In fourth place with 8.97% (over 62,000 votes) is the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH).

Meanwhile, according to Klix.ba, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) is leading in the elections to the parliament of Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina's predominantly Serb entity. The party is currently projected to win 34 seats based on the votes counted so far.

In second place is the Pokret Sigurna Srpska (PSS) party with a projected 12 seats, followed by the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) with 11. The Coalition for the State, consisting of pro-Bosnian parties from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is projected to receive two seats in Republika Srpska's parliament.

Overall, as reported by The Associated Press, Bosnia suffers from tensions between nationalist parties representing predominantly Muslim Bosniaks (who make up about half of the population), Orthodox Serbs (who account for about a third of the population) and a minority of Catholic Croats (who make up around 15% of the population).

Furthermore, the country has a complex system of state institutions created under the 1995 peace agreement brokered by the US to resolve inter-ethnic conflicts.

Therefore, Bosnia is currently divided into two political entities with a weak central government whose work is overseen by an international envoy: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a population that is in the majority Muslim, and Republika Srpska, predominantly ethnic Serbs.

Even ahead of the elections, victory in Republika Srpska was projected for the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, the party led by the former president of the Republic and staunchly pro-Russian politician Milorad Dodik.

The politician was at the centre of the election campaign's focus, despite the absence of his name from the ballot paper due to being stripped of the right to hold public office. During the election campaign, Dodik stoked controversies that raised fears of renewed instability in the country.

Specifically, at his party's final rally before the elections, which was also attended by Igor Kalabukhov, the Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik told supporters that Bosnia is "dead" and that "it is an impossible country that makes no sense whatsoever."

The parties that preliminarily took second and third place in the elections to the parliament of Republika Srpska do not position themselves as explicitly pro-Russian, but they do support Bosnia's neutrality regarding the Russia-Ukraine war.

In contrast, the centre-right SDA, the centre-left SDP and the centrist SBiH – which, according to preliminary results, are set to win in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – hold a clear pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western stance. They have openly condemned Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The HDZ BiH, which will most likely take third place in the Federation elections, officially holds a stance similar to the two aforementioned parties but in practice sometimes adopts compromise positions, such as abstaining during votes on anti-Russian sanctions or entering into alliances with Dodik's political force.

Background:

• On 4 October, general elections took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina, during which a massive drop in voter turnout was recorded.
• Approximately 3.4 million people voted to elect three members of the country's multiethnic presidential council, members of the national parliament and leaders of the institutions of the country's two political entities.

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