Bloomberg: NATO developing "Theory of Victory" over Russia using drones and AI

NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich is developing a strategy for achieving a swift victory in the event of a Russian attack on the Alliance's eastern flank, with a particular focus on integrating new defence technologies such as drones and artificial intelligence.

Source: Bloomberg, which obtained an unclassified version of the document titled Theory of Victory, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Grynkewich is due to present the document in Poland on 12 October. Officials and diplomats familiar with the matter said it is intended to explain how the Alliance would respond to a potential invasion of NATO territory.

The document is also intended to show allies how NATO will integrate conventional weapons with new capabilities that have emerged since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as to encourage greater defence investment and better preparedness, the sources said.

The strategy emphasises NATO's defensive nature and the need to avoid unintended provocations, while making clear the need for a collective response to hybrid threats.

The strategy stresses that by demonstrating its readiness, NATO aims to convince an adversary that victory is impossible.

However, if NATO is attacked, the Alliance would seek to halt the invasion using a combination of ground forces and other assets under the NATO Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative – a concept based on the use of low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-powered targeting.

Grynkewich's spokesperson, Colonel Martin O'Donnell, declined to discuss the details of the plan but stressed that the Alliance is "purely defensive".

"The Supreme Allied Commander Europe's theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO's advantage. Given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked," he said.

Background:

• Martin Jäger, head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, has said he sees a risk of violent conflict with Russia and that the confrontation has taken on a new and dangerous quality.
• Media reports have also indicated that Estonia is relocating a key brigade from the town of Tapa to Jõhvi, 50 kilometres from the Russian border, as part of the launch of an "active defence" strategy in preparation for possible Russian aggression.
• Meanwhile, Lithuania and Poland are jointly developing an international civilian evacuation plan that could be implemented if some residents of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia need to be evacuated across the border.

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