Russia raises inflation forecast for 2026

The Central Bank of Russia has kept its interest rate at 14% and increased its inflation forecast for 2026 to 7.1-7.6%.

Source: press release from the Bank of Russia

Details: As of 19 October, annual inflation in Russia stood at 6.8%, meaning it is expected to rise by the end of the year.

The press release notes that the acceleration in inflation is primarily driven by motor fuel prices.

Overall, in the third quarter of 2026, current seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8.0% in annualised terms, up from 4.8% in the second quarter of 2026.

The corresponding core inflation indicator rose to 6.2%, up from 4.5% in the second quarter.

Russia expects the inflation rate to stand at 4% in 2027.

Background: In July, the Central Bank of Russia's inflation forecast for 2026 was raised from 4.5-5.5% to 6.0-7.0%. The Russians also revised their GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 0.5-1.5% to 0-1%.

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