Ukrainian forces to halt Russian offensive if US aid arrives quickly – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have assessed that Ukraine's Defence Forces will be able to stop the Russian offensive if the US provides assistance quickly.

Source: ISW

Details: Mark Warner, Chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, indicated on 21 April that US security assistance, including ATACMS missiles, may reach Ukraine by the end of next week provided the Senate passes a supplemental appropriations bill on 23 April, and US President Joe Biden signs it by 24 April.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 21 April that the prompt delivery of US military aid to Ukraine would enable Ukrainian forces to stabilise the situation on the battlefield and seize the initiative.

Meanwhile, ISW further assesses that Ukrainian forces may face additional hardships in the coming weeks as they await US security assistance to stabilise the situation on the battlefield. However, Ukrainian troops will likely succeed in halting the current Russian offensive, provided that new US assistance arrives quickly.

Russian forces will likely intensify their ongoing offensive activities and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks before the arrival of US military assistance "in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian materiel constraints".

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 21 April:

• US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on 21 April that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, will be in transit to Ukraine "by the end of the week" if the Senate passes the supplemental appropriations bill on 23 April and US President Joe Biden signs it by 24 April.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 21 April that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilise the frontline and seize the initiative.
• Ukrainian forces struck and damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) Kommuna submarine support ship – the world’s oldest active-duty naval vessel – in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on 21 April.
• US-sanctioned, pro-Kremlin Moldovan politician Ilan Shor created the new pro-Russian Moldovan Victory electoral bloc on 21 April, which plans to run a candidate in the 20 October Moldovan presidential election.
• The Victory electoral bloc will likely allow the Kremlin to focus on a unified political effort in Moldova instead of maintaining relations with multiple pro-Russian Moldovan actors and parties, as it has done recently.
• The Russian and Chinese navies signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation on 21 April amid recent reports of China’s increased support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin blocked domestic access to the website of the French non-governmental organisation Reporters Without Borders (RSF), depriving Russians of access to independent assessments of Russian freedom of speech and press.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
• Russian forces have increased their use of small, lightweight, off-road vehicles along the frontline.

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