War 2026: how exports, institutions and people are shaping the future of Ukraine's defence industry – key takeaways from the Ukrainska Pravda conference

An international conference, "War 2026. Humans vs Machines", was held in Kyiv, bringing together weapons manufacturers, military personnel, major businesses and Ukraine's partners around a question central to this war: human or machine?

By 2026, the war has become technological. Unmanned systems are being scaled up, robotic platforms are being tested, the private sector is being integrated into state defence, logistics are being transformed, and the role of data is growing.

Yet the paradox of this technological revolution is that another question is becoming increasingly prominent: how important the human factor remains – the will, discipline, motivation and moral choice of individuals – when the battlefield is saturated with algorithms, sensors and autonomous decision-making.

Technology will not replace strategy

The event was opened by Ukrainska Pravda editor-in-chief Sevğil Musaieva, who set a framework that sounded less like an optimistic technological forecast and more like a warning about a dangerous wartime temptation: believing that new weapons automatically guarantee an advantage.

"Over the years of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has created a new sector – technological – developing at a pace that makes the world look at us as a laboratory of a new military reality. And here a dangerous illusion emerges: that technology alone can replace strategy. That the speed of an algorithm can compensate for the absence of policy. That a machine can take on responsibility.

It cannot. Without long-term rules of the game, without protected manufacturers, without planning for human resources and without a mature state policy, no technology will create the advantage that will bring us closer to the desired victory," Musaieva said in her opening remarks.

The war is entering a phase where the decisive factor is not only innovation but also a country's institutional capacity to scale it – through contracts, standards, predictable rules, protection for manufacturers and human resources that are no less important than components for drones.

This idea became the central topic of the discussions.

Ukraine's lessons for NATO

Wesley Clark, former NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, described Ukraine's experience as a unique case of rapid military adaptation to a new type of warfare. Its uniqueness lies in a situation where changes in tactics, technology and logistics are taking place not according to long-term plans, but literally at the pace of the front line.

"No other army in the world has done what Ukraine has done: you have adapted to the use of drones, to artillery shortages, to the introduction of fibre-optic technologies and new air defence systems. These are unique skills that no NATO army possesses," Clark said.

His remarks confirm that Ukraine's experience is no longer a peripheral "case of a country at war" but a source of knowledge that the Alliance must take into account as it re-arms and rethinks its own doctrines.

Exports: an opportunity constrained by protectionism

A separate part of the discussions focused on the panel titled "Weapons Production and Protection of Manufacturers", where the key topic was arms exports – both as an opportunity and as an area of risk.

Ukrainian technologies are attracting interest in Europe, but entering its defence markets is far from straightforward. The sector is shaped not only by market rules but also by political decisions, lobbying and the protection of national manufacturers.

Olena Dushenok, Business Development Director at Skyfall, stressed that partners expect Ukraine to provide not just a product but a full package – including training and integration.

"When we talk about exports, our partners expect not just hardware – they expect a whole ecosystem. For us, this includes Skyfall Academy, support centres, training and the unique expertise gained over the years of the full-scale war. Simply assembling a drone in a laboratory is not enough; we offer a ready-made solution and operational experience," Dushenok said.

Stanislav Hrishyn, co-founder and Director of Strategic Development at General Cherry, noted that Western attitudes towards FPV drones are changing. They are no longer seen as a "cheap alternative" but as one of the most effective weapons categories in modern warfare. However, the path to the NATO market still runs through politics.

"In the West, there is strong lobbying – what we sometimes call corruption. They protect the interests of their own companies and want defence contracts to go to businesses owned by their citizens. There is now growing recognition globally that FPV drones are not weapons for the poor but highly effective systems that all NATO countries should be paying attention to," Hrishyn said.

Oleksandr Yakovenko, founder of TAF Industries, expressed a similar view even more bluntly, arguing that "classic export" in the defence sector is almost a myth, as markets are structured to keep key funding within national economies.

"I'll be frank: I have never believed in the possibility of classic exports – where we simply manufacture drones here and sell them abroad. What we in Ukraine often call corruption has an official name in the West – lobbying. Western countries very strictly protect the interests of their own companies and beneficiaries. They want the main defence contracts to go to companies owned by their citizens," Yakovenko said.

Vladlen Nikitin, founder of Ukrainian Aerospace Technologies, added another dimension to this topic: the global demand is not only for equipment but for the concept of its use – Ukraine's "logic of war", shaped in real combat, which is itself becoming a valuable product.

"Western companies are trying to bring Ukrainian technologies into their own ecosystems not only for the hardware but also for the knowledge of how to use it in modern warfare. Our advantage is real combat experience, which is currently unique. However, we must remember that the enemy is not standing still: Russia has significantly increased ammunition production – from four to seven million rounds per year – as well as missile and armoured vehicle output and continues to supply equipment to Algeria and other countries despite sanctions," Nikitin said.

This part of the discussion ultimately came down to a central dilemma: Ukraine already has both the product and the experience, but exports require more than contracts. They require a state strategy that protects both national and industrial interests – and prevents Ukraine's advantage from turning into mere technology transfer.

"Moving away from China": how the industry is seeking sovereignty

Another key panel, "Moving away from China", focused on the reality that technological warfare ultimately depends on manufacturing dependencies.

Despite Ukraine's progress in assembly and development, reliance on Chinese components remains systemic. The issue is less about patriotic slogans and more about supply chains and the ability to scale production domestically.

Oleksii Babenko, director of the Vyriy drone company, spoke about a pace of growth that would have seemed impossible just a year ago:

"A year ago, we were celebrating the first 1,000 of the serial FPV drones, and today the market situation is fundamentally different. Although there have been few changes at the global policy level, the industry itself has made a huge leap forward – everything is developing despite the circumstances, and this gives confidence that it will be Ukrainian drones that will be used in the future. There has also been progress in component production. A year ago, Ukrainian motor manufacturers such as MotorG were only considering pilot batches and looking for funding. Today, they are producing tens or even hundreds of thousands of motors per month," Babenko said.

Yaroslav Azhniuk, co-founder of Odd Systems, acknowledged a critical dependence on China in the field of optics and outlined a pragmatic response: the construction of a sensor manufacturing facility for thermal imaging cameras.

Human capital: the resource that cannot be manufactured

Alongside discussions of technology and contracts, the conference repeatedly returned to what remains irreplaceable in the war of 2026: people – their motivation, psychological resilience, management culture, and the way the state and business work with veterans.

At the "Human Capital" panel, Liudmyla Novak, Communications Director at Interpipe and supervisor of the company's corporate patronage service, spoke not about abstract "social responsibility", but about practical approaches – how businesses stay in touch with employees in the defence forces, how they welcome veterans back, and why this work should begin not upon return, but from the first day of service.

"We have a principle that a veteran's journey begins on the day of mobilisation. If it starts later, that person will not see you as their partner or employer. The period when a person is in the military is simply a temporary assignment. We know that person will come back. Staying in contact with mobilised employees helps us understand what is happening in their lives. Their requests are mostly about attacks, destruction, psychological support, or assistance with medical treatment for relatives.

A total of 150 people have returned from military service to work with us. We are not afraid to employ veterans – we have a dedicated onboarding procedure and have developed tools that allow us to welcome them back in a sensitive and supportive way," Novak said.

Hero of Ukraine Serhii Volynskyi framed the issue even more directly, describing veterans as a strategic national resource.

"People are the most valuable capital of our country, and both business and the army must ensure they have high-quality personnel. A veteran is a major asset – disciplined and aware of their place and role. It is someone who values their reputation highly. I believe veterans will be the driving force of progress," Volynskyi said.

The final decision belongs to people

Borys Martynenko, founder of the 14th Regiment and now head of the 1st Separate Centre of the Unmanned Systems Forces, outlined a message that brought together the conference's key themes – exports, localisation, production and the defence economy.

"Behind all technologies, the most important element remains the human being. Technology can make us stronger, but the final decision always rests with people. We must not forget to invest in our people – fragile and vulnerable, sometimes afraid, yet carrying responsibility for the future of an entire nation. In the end, the one who prevails is the one who preserves clear judgement, dignity and faith. At the centre of everything is the human being. And as long as people stand, Ukraine stands," Martynenko said.

This is perhaps the most accurate definition of the war of 2026: yes, it has become technological; yes, it is measured in production, data and scalability – but its meaning and its limits are ultimately determined by people.

The general partners of the "War 2026. Humans vs Machines" conference were NAUDI, Skyfall, Interpipe, Metinvest Group, General Cherry and Vyriy. The event was also supported by UkrAviacosTech and TAF Industries.

Volodymyr Fomichov

Translated by Myroslava Zavadska

Edited by Anastasiia Kolesnykova