Russia attacks gas production. Will Ukraine have enough gas and money for the winter?

Russia is stepping up its attacks on gas infrastructure in an attempt to disrupt preparations for winter. Part of Ukraine's domestic production capacity has been lost, imports have almost come to a standstill, and Naftogaz, Ukraine's largest national oil and gas company, is being forced to look for billions of dollars to purchase fuel amid falling profits and rapidly growing debt. Time for preparation is running short. The situation is being further complicated by the war in the Middle East, which has driven gas prices up once again.

While a year ago the problem was partly addressed through support from partners and emergency fuel imports, EU allies are now speaking of growing fatigue over continuously financing gas purchases for Ukraine. How much natural gas needs to be stockpiled before the start of winter, how severely has domestic production been affected, and where will the government find the tens of billions of hryvnias needed to import the resource?

Attacks intensify

The Russians have been attacking Ukrainian gas facilities since the first day of the full-scale war. In 2026 alone, there have been over 100 such attacks. Initially, Russia targeted underground gas storage facilities in Ukraine's west before shifting its focus to production sites across the country.

The Russians began actively striking compressor stations near underground gas storage facilities in the spring of 2024. Their main objective was to drive foreign traders out of the market, create fear around gas storage facilities and disrupt preparations for the next heating season.

The strategy worked. While non-residents stored 2.5 billion cubic metres of gas in Ukraine ahead of the 2023-2024 winter season, these volumes have fallen to zero over the past two years.

Since the beginning of 2025, following the expiry of the gas transit contract, the Russians have shifted to attacking gas production facilities. Their primary targets have been booster compressor stations, which clean and dehydrate gas before it is fed into the gas transmission system.

The attacks in 2025 resulted in the temporary loss of 42% of gas production. The state-owned companies Ukrgasvydobuvannya, the largest Ukrainian gas producer, and Ukrnafta, Ukraine's largest oil and gas company, suffered the greatest damage. Some equipment was brought back into operation within a week and repairs to other facilities took several months, while full restoration required up to a year.

This recovery timeframe remains relevant in 2026, meaning the scale of losses will depend on the extent of the damage. It is already clear that the Russians are increasing the intensity of their strikes and are likely to continue doing so in the future.

Ekonomichna Pravda sources in the market do not yet consider the situation critical for gas production.

"Some of the damaged facilities can be repaired relatively quickly, and current production levels are sufficient to cover domestic consumption and even inject small volumes into underground gas storage facilities. There has been a decline, but it is not critical, and facilities are gradually being brought back into operation," said a manager at one of the state-owned companies. According to the sources, the decline in gas production caused by Russian attacks currently ranges between 15% and 20%.

How much gas is needed?

During the winter, Ukraine relies on gas from underground storage facilities, domestic production and imported supplies. According to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory, Ukraine had 11 billion cubic metres of gas in storage at the end of May, including 4.7 billion cubic metres of "buffer gas" – fuel that cannot be withdrawn because a certain volume of technical gas must always remain in storage to ensure the safe operation of the facility.

The government has set a target of accumulating 14.6 billion cubic metres of gas by the start of the heating season, while the minimum required volume is 13.2 billion cubic metres. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal explained the lower threshold by pointing to the risk of further attacks: "Ukraine faces the same threats as last year, so forecasts regarding gas reserves may still be adjusted depending on the scale of attacks and destruction."

Where imports are coming from

Against the backdrop of rising gas prices caused by the war in the Middle East, imports collapsed 28-fold in May to 29 million cubic metres. Meanwhile, data from ExPro show that supplies had remained consistently high in the preceding months.

In 2026, Ukraine imported 2.21 billion cubic metres of gas, 2.1 times more than during the same period in 2025. The largest volume came from Poland – 1.03 billion cubic metres (46.8%). Imports from Hungary amounted to 779 million cubic metres (35.3%) and from Slovakia to 280 million cubic metres (12.7%), while 117 million cubic metres (5.2%) arrived via the southern route through the Trans-Balkan Corridor.

Ekonomichna Pravda sources in the gas industry say that in addition to gas from domestic production, Naftogaz plans to import a further 2-2.5 billion cubic metres of gas.

Where will the money come from?

The key challenge in preparing for winter is not only securing sufficient gas but also finding the money to pay for it. "We are capable of importing up to 2 billion cubic metres of gas per month, so the problem is not the availability of gas. The problem is the price and whether the money is there," said an MP involved in energy-sector decision-making. How much money is needed?

Ukraine entered the winter of 2025 with 13.2 billion cubic metres of gas in storage, but because of the attacks it was forced to purchase an additional 4.6 billion cubic metres of fuel. The initial procurement plan for 2026 envisages the purchase of 2-2.5 billion cubic metres.

Before the war involving Iran, gas in Europe was trading at below US$400 per thousand cubic metres. Since the conflict began, however, prices have largely remained in the range of US$500-600 per thousand cubic metres. Based on current prices and transportation costs, purchasing 2-2.5 billion cubic metres would cost between US$1.3 billion and US$1.5 billion. The final amount may vary depending on the actual volume purchased and prevailing market prices.

Does Naftogaz have that kind of money? In 2025, the company reported a consolidated profit of only UAH 5.8 billion (approx. US$130.7 million), six times less than in 2024. It appears that Naftogaz will once again have to rely on loans and financial assistance from partners.

Officials cite a lack of funding as the main reason behind the suspension of imports and the slower pace of gas injections into underground storage facilities. "My understanding is that there is simply no money. They effectively halted imports altogether back in April," a government source told Ekonomichna Pravda.

Another major issue is the company's substantial debt burden. According to sources in the market, Naftogaz has significantly increased its indebtedness, while state-owned banks have almost exhausted their capacity to provide the company with additional lending.

In 2025, the company spent almost US$1 billion of its own funds on gas purchases and borrowed €1.57 billion: €770 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, €300 million from the European Investment Bank and €500 million from state-owned banks, with PrivatBank providing the largest share among them at €240 million. Naftogaz also received an €85 million grant from Norway.

International partners are becoming increasingly reluctant to provide grants for gas purchases. "The Europeans are saying quite openly: we cannot continue giving away hundreds of millions of euros for Ukraine's gas imports for a fifth consecutive year. Ukraine must address this issue itself, including through a revision of gas tariffs," an Ekonomichna Pravda source in parliament said.

The government will likely have to seek emergency sources of financing, ranging from new loans to a possible recapitalisation of Naftogaz through the issuance of domestic government bonds, as was done in previous years. However, the issue that concerns the sources most is the weak pace of imports.

"The key priority right now is to increase the volume of gas in underground storage facilities. Naftogaz's management has either decided to wait for prices to fall or opted for a strategy of importing gas on a just-in-time basis during the heating season. Such an approach creates additional risks during wartime.

If import entry points come under attack – and we do not have many of them – this could create further problems. That is why importing gas in the middle of the heating season is not the best idea," concluded a representative of one of the state-owned companies.

By Mykola Topalov

Translated by Anna Kybukevych

Edited by Anastasiia Kolesnykova