More than half of Ukrainians believe Ukraine will win in short term

A total of 58% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win this war in the short term.

Source: nationwide sociological survey  conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation in cooperation with the Razumkov Centre sociological service from 8 to 15 December 2023

Details: The vast majority of Ukrainians continue to believe in the victory (88%), 63% of them definitely believe in the victory (last year, it was 78%), and only 5% of respondents doubt the victory.

Quote: "More than half of Ukrainians (58%) believe that Ukraine will win this war in the short term: 6% – in the next few months, 21% – by the summer of 2024, and another 31% - in 1-2 years.

15% of respondents believe that Ukraine will win in the medium term (3-5 years). At the same time, supporters of the most pessimistic scenario, who do not believe that victory will happen in their lifetime, are in the absolute minority (2.5%)."

Details: According to the survey, the number of those who believe in victory by the summer of 2024 is the lowest in the East (16%) and the highest in the South (25%).

In terms of regional difference, the share of those who believe that victory will come in 1-2 years ranges from 27% in the South to 36% in the West.

Reference: The survey was conducted by the face-to-face method in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi Oblasts and the city of Kyiv (in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Kherson Oblasts, the survey was conducted only in the territories controlled by the Government of Ukraine and not subject to hostilities).

The survey was conducted using a stratified multi-stage sampling with random selection at the first stages of sampling and a quota method of selecting respondents at the final stage (when respondents were selected according to gender and age quotas).  The structure of the sample population reproduces the demographic structure of the adult population of the studied territories as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, sex, and type of settlement). 

2019 respondents over the age of 18 were surveyed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systematic deviations of the sample may be caused by the consequences of the Russian aggression, in particular, the forced evacuation of millions of citizens.

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