Zelenskyy preparing for summer elections, says The Economist

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may hold elections as early as this summer, and he intends to run for a second term, The Economist reports.

Source: The Economist, citing Ukrainian government sources

Details: Ukrainian officials have told the outlet that Zelenskyy convened a meeting last week, instructing his team to prepare for an election to take place after a full ceasefire – which, according to US estimates, could be achieved by the end of April. The report names Easter Sunday, 20 April, as a possible date.

The article also notes that Ukraine’s parliament is scheduled to vote on 5 May on whether to extend martial law, which is currently set to expire on 8 May. Lifting martial law is a necessary first step to launching an electoral process.

Quote: "The sources differ on the exact timeline, but most say Mr Zelenskyy is aiming for summer. The law requires at least 60 days for campaigning, so the earliest possibility would be early July. But some sources say the campaign would have to last three months: this is the time election authorities have reportedly told parliament that they require to reconstitute voter lists in the middle of war."

Details: The Economist suggests that both US President Donald Trump and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin "were irritated by Mr Zelenskyy’s stubbornness" and "pushed him to hold elections in the middle of the war, believing no doubt that Ukrainian voters would do them the favour of unseating him".

Just two months ago, the report says, Zelenskyy was believed to be firmly opposed to holding a vote. However, Trump’s humiliating treatment of him during the first week of March boosted Zelenskyy’s ratings and appears to have changed his calculus.

"Serious preparations are now underway for Mr Zelenskyy to go before the electorate for a second time, and quite soon," the article says.

Petro Poroshenko, leader of Ukraine’s largest opposition party, European Solidarity, predicts the elections could take place "any time from August to October". He claims the campaign has already begun with Zelenskyy’s controversial decision to impose sanctions against him in February.

A senior government source told The Economist that Poroshenko "both overestimates and underestimates his importance". While he is reportedly not seen as a serious threat, Zelenskyy’s dislike of Poroshenko is said to have accelerated the sanctions decision.

The official believes Zelenskyy may try to catch his rivals off guard with a July election, hoping that the short timeline will allow him to run without major opponents. The source also says such a move might benefit more than just Zelenskyy, since "a long campaign would tear the country apart". Still, the report warns that a rushed vote risks further damaging already strained relations between the powerful, centralised presidential office and the rest of Ukraine’s political sphere.

The Economist adds that both Putin and Trump may now prefer to avoid snap elections.

Quote: "Both presumably demanded one believing it would lead to Mr Zelenskyy’s exit. Given that the calculation has flipped upside-down, they might not sit quiet while he fast-tracks his progress to a second term. Mr Putin holds many of the cards here. His drones and missiles could make cancelling martial law – let alone holding a vote – impossible.

But many think elections could help Mr Putin destabilise Ukraine even if Mr Zelenskyy wins. An intelligence officer predicts internal instability will be a bigger risk to Ukraine in 2025 than battles on the front line. An election campaign would let the Russians turn up their influence campaign: ‘They will use opinion leaders, soldiers and the opposition to do their bidding.’"

Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!