Russian forces may set their sights on Druzhkivka in Donetsk Oblast this summer – UP

Unless Ukraine's forces can block the Russian salient on the road between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, which has been growing since early May, the Russians may attempt to capture both Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka this summer.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda article Russia's summer frontline offensive: where will they advance, and what factors weaken the Ukrainian defence forces’ positions?

Quote: "Potentially, UP's sources on the Kramatorsk front suggest, this salient could develop into a further Russian advance northwards and the capture of another major city – Druzhkivka. This will serve as a pincer to surround Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka from the west, while the enemy forms another pincer moving from Chasiv Yar in the east. 

By doing this, the Russians will be able to ‘bite off’ half of the Kramatorsk agglomeration without getting involved in urban warfare. This can be considered their best-case scenario for this summer."

Quote from a UP source on the Kramatorsk front: "By increasing their efforts on the salient between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, the Russians could advance towards Torske, which is west of Druzhkivka, and on the other side, they could advance towards Druzhkivka from Chasiv Yar. And this whole piece of territory could be a big problem if the Russians are not stopped. Why would they go into Kostiantynivka if they can do more? This will put Druzhkivka and all our supply routes under threat."

Quote from Hlib Voloskyi, analyst at the Come Back Alive Initiatives Centre: "If the Russians can reach Druzhkivka, they will do so. If not, they will at least try to establish fire control over the roads to Kostiantynivka, from Pokrovsk on one side and Kramatorsk on the other. One of the problems is that Kostiantynivka is located in a lowland area that lies around the heights of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. If they take control of these heights, it will be very easy for them to establish fire control over both the city and the logistics routes."

Details: As of late May and early June, the Russians have been actively conducting assaults within this salient using infantry, motorcycles and even armoured vehicles. The distance from the salient to the outskirts of Kostiantynivka is 10-12 km.

Background: In May, Russian troops broke through the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road in the Malynivka-Nova Poltavka-Novoolenivka area and created a threatening salient 10+ km long and about the same width. It is equidistant from Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, so it entails the risk of a Russian offensive on both these towns at once.

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