Russia modified its missiles to evade Ukrainian air defence – FT
Months of destructive Russian airstrikes indicate that Moscow has managed to modify its missiles to make them less vulnerable to interception by Ukrainian air defences, reports the Financial Times.
Source: FT, citing current and former Ukrainian and Western officials
Quote: "Bombardments that targeted Ukrainian drone makers this summer were a prominent example of Russia improving its ballistic missiles to better defeat US Patriot batteries."
Details: According to the Financial Times, Russia has likely modified its mobile Iskander-M system, which launches missiles with a range of up to 500 km, as well as the air-launched Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, capable of flying up to 480 km. These missiles now follow a conventional trajectory before changing course and diving at a steep angle, or performing manoeuvres that confuse and evade Patriot interceptors.
Quote: "It is a 'game-changer for Russia', said one former Ukrainian official. With Kyiv also contending with slower deliveries of air defence interceptors from the US, the missile campaign has destroyed key military facilities and critical infrastructure ahead of winter. Ukraine's ballistic missile interception rate improved over the summer, reaching 37 per cent in August, but it plummeted to 6 per cent in September, despite fewer launches."
More details: The Financial Times notes that on Wednesday 1 October, the Ukrainian Air Forces reported that all four Iskander-M missiles launched by Russia overnight bypassed the country's defence system and hit their targets.
According to FT, this summer the missiles seriously damaged at least four drone manufacturing facilities in Kyiv and its surroundings. In particular, on 28 August, Russian forces struck a site producing Turkish Bayraktar drones.
Two officials cited by the outlet said that during this strike, two missiles were launched on the offices of a company developing and manufacturing components for unmanned systems. The Russian missiles also bypassed Ukrainian air defences and damaged the offices of the EU delegation and the British Council, which were located nearby.
"The Patriot interceptors are the only ones in Kyiv's arsenal capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. Moscow's cruise missiles can be taken down with less sophisticated air defences, but the updates have made it harder to do so, according to the officials," FT said.
A Western official familiar with data on Patriot performance said the first sign of Russian missile modernisation was a noticeable drop in interception effectiveness. They say a pattern has emerged whereby incoming missiles behave differently in the terminal phase, deviating from previously established impact parameters.
The official's assessment is corroborated by a report compiled by the Special Inspector General of the US Defense Intelligence Agency covering 1 April to 30 June. The document states that Ukrainian forces "struggled to consistently use Patriot air defence systems to protect against Moscow's ballistic missiles because of recent Russian tactical improvements, including enhancements that enable their missiles to change trajectory and perform manoeuvres rather than flying in a traditional ballistic trajectory".
According to Western and Ukrainian officials, Ukraine is sharing Patriot employment data with the Pentagon and US air defence manufacturers. Those data are being used to implement updates required to keep pace with Russia's changes. However, officials stress that such upgrades often lag behind Moscow's improvements.
Recently, President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to Western partners for more air defence systems for Kyiv.
He emphasised that, with winter approaching, Moscow is reverting to its familiar strategy of striking Ukraine's energy grid to plunge the country into darkness and undermine morale.
Quote: "Russia's evolving missile technology makes this year's threat more acute."
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