Russia unable to cope with growing electricity shortages – Ukrainian intelligence

Russia is facing a growing electricity shortage in 2025. As of October this year, demand has exceeded total generation and the deficit in the national power grid has already reached 25 GW.

Source: Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU)

Quote from FISU: "Among the main causes of the deficit, the most notable is the imbalance between the growth of consumption and the development of infrastructure."

Russia's main thermal power generation facilities have been operating for over 30 years and are in a critical condition. More than 70% of the country's generation equipment is worn out.

Quote: "As a result, transmission lines are overloaded, and local accidents and malfunctions have become commonplace."

The most vulnerable regions are Kamchatka Krai and Krasnoyarsk Krai, Magadan and Sakhalin oblasts, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, and North Caucasus – none of which are connected to Russia's unified energy system.

Quote: "Western sanctions imposed for the military invasion of Ukraine have added further pressure, as a result of which Russia has lost access to modern energy equipment, software and technologies."

The FISU said that despite the Russian government's attempts to "introduce at least some measures to stabilise its energy system", the growing electricity shortage points to a systemic crisis in Russia's energy sector.

These measures include offering money back or discounts for customers who voluntarily reduce their electricity use during peak hours, as well as disconnecting consumers who do not require a guaranteed power supply.

"As long as the lion's share of Russia's budget goes on military spending, the economy and social sphere will not only suffer, they will systematically decline," the FISU predicted.

Background:

• An updated forecast by Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has turned out to be critically dependent on whether international sanctions are lifted or maintained.
• Earlier, the FISU stated that Russia is trapped by its increased military spending and the fact that its defence industrial base has become the main driver of domestic demand.
• The Russian Finance Ministry has announced a new measure to protect the state budget from oil price fluctuations and Western sanctions affecting Russian energy exports: raising taxes.

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