Russia faces soaring wage and tax debts – Ukrainian foreign intelligence

Wage arrears in Russia reached RUB 1.95 billion (US$24.3 million) as of the end of September 2025, an increase of 18.6% compared with the previous month. The total amount of unpaid wages has quadrupled since September 2024.

Source: Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service

Quote: "About 75% of unpaid wages relate to debts incurred in 2025, and 20% in 2024. The main cause remains the shortage of working capital among businesses."

Details: The highest levels of arrears were recorded in construction (44%), mining and oil and gas (17.5%), and manufacturing (11.6%).

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service noted that businesses' liquidity problems are also reflected in the tax statistics.

In the first half of 2025, Russia's Federal Tax Service filed RUB 15 billion (US$187 million) worth of court claims to recover unpaid taxes and duties – seven times more than in the same period last year.

Quote: "Companies are increasingly unwilling to pay tax debts voluntarily, forcing the tax authorities to pursue compulsory recovery."

More details: The decline in business solvency has been exacerbated by a slowing economy, expensive credit and continued sanctions pressure.

In January-July 2025, total corporate profits fell by 8%, equivalent to roughly RUB 1.5 trillion (US$18.7 billion). One in four companies has reported a sharp rise in unpaid invoices.

Amid the rapid decline in business profitability, the Kremlin "continues to raise taxes in an attempt to patch up the budget".

Quote: "But this approach creates a vicious circle: the tax base shrinks, companies shut down or move into the shadow economy, and the authorities are then forced to raise taxes again to offset losses.

Paradoxically, Russia now plans to issue RUB 1.8 trillion (over US$18 billion) worth of loans to other countries, even as debts mount up at home and the economy suffocates from the shortage of money."

Background:

• Earlier, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported that prices for Russian Urals oil – the country's benchmark crude – have fallen to their lowest level since spring, casting doubt on the budget plans of both Moscow and Minsk.
• Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service has also reported that Russia is increasingly "paying" its wartime allies in territory. Lacking the resources to develop its vast Far Eastern Federal District, Moscow is opening up the region to foreign expansion.
• Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service also reported earlier that Russia has trapped itself by increasing defence spending and making the military-industrial complex the main driver of demand.
• Meanwhile, Russia's Ministry of Finance announced a tax hike as a new measure to shield the state budget from volatile oil prices and Western sanctions targeting energy exports.
• The Russian government is considering raising the value-added tax (VAT) rate to curb the budget deficit and preserve reserves.
• Russia's economy is facing deeper problems than officials admit, with analysts warning that a full-scale banking crisis could erupt within a year.

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