Chance of ending war in 2026 is nil but ceasefire possible, Ukraine's former foreign minister says
Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has said that a ceasefire could be possible in 2026, but the war with Russia will not end.
Source: Kuleba in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda
Details: When asked whether there is any chance of ending the war in 2026, Kuleba replied, "Ending the war, no. A ceasefire, yes."
He said that Russia still has no motivation to end the war.
Quote: "You see, wars stop when everyone has a motivation. It can be positive or negative.
Positive motivation is: I have achieved what I wanted; that is enough for now, let's stop. Negative motivation is pressure from partners and domestic difficulties; I need to take a break and regroup or relieve pressure from a partner forcing me to do it.
The ceasefire between Israel and HAMAS is precisely a combination of both motivations.
We do not have that combination at the moment. Russia is confident it can achieve its goals by military means. Ukraine is confident it can hold out. Trump, paradoxical as it may sound, is running between Putin and Zelenskyy, trying to create negative and positive motivation for them, but it still does not work.
Why? Because each side has compensating resources. As I said, for Russia it is China. For us it is Europe. That is why, as long as Europe and Ukraine stand together, Trump cannot break them."
More details: Kuleba also said that major progress has been made and formalised in the Ukraine-Europe-US negotiation process.
Quote: "If, for some reason, nothing works out now [with the peace talks – ed.], the next attempt will not start 100 metres from the finish but from one metre, though that is the hardest metre.
But I believe there will be no ceasefire deal with the Russians by the end of winter for one simple reason: why would they smash up the energy sector and the economy going into winter only to stop suddenly? Clearly, that is not their strategy."
More details: Kuleba added that "the next burst of the negotiating process will be at the end of February".
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