Russian strikes on ports might cut Ukraine export earnings by US$1bn

Viktor Volokita — 29 January, 16:16

Thick smoke hangs over debris strewn across railway tracks beside a heavily damaged building, with flames still visible in the distance. Photo: Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority

Ukraine has been set to earn about US$1 billion less from exports in the first quarter than expected in the National Bank of Ukraine's previous macroeconomic forecast because of Russian strikes on ports.

Source: Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Deputy Head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), at a press conference on 29 January

Details: Lepushynskyi said that transport logistics became significantly more difficult in the fourth quarter of 2025 because of attacks on ports and factories.

Quote: "As a result, part of the exports was redirected through other routes, in particular by rail. But overall we recorded export figures about US$150 million lower than we expected in the fourth quarter."

More details: Lepushynskyi said that the risks remain significant in the first quarter this year. However, the forecast assumes a gradual restoration of shipping through seaports, which would allow larger volumes of the harvest and other goods to be exported, including steel products and iron ore.

Background: The intensity of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure surged in 2025. Ukraine recorded 36 strikes on ports in 2024, rising sharply to 96 in 2025. Last year, 325 port facilities were damaged in the assaults.

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export ports Russo-Ukrainian war National Bank of Ukraine