Swedish intelligence calls Russia "serious and concrete" threat to NATO

Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) has said in its annual report that Russia remains the main military threat to the kingdom and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

Source: Politico, a Brussels-based politics and policy news organisation

Details: Swedish intelligence described the threat as "serious and concrete", characterising Moscow's behaviour as "opportunistic and aggressive".

The report flagged airspace violations, sabotage and cyber operations as examples of hostile Russian activity in the region, including the Baltic Sea. MUST's assessment aligns with intelligence from other Baltic countries, which also report rising aggression from Russia.

Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service described Russia as "dangerous despite its incompetence" in its own annual review earlier. Estonian intelligence believes Moscow is "preparing for its next war", having increased artillery shell production seventeenfold since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

However, the Estonian review cautioned against panic, noting that there are no signs that Russia intends to attack NATO by 2027 and predicting that such an attack is unlikely in the near future given Europe's strengthened defensive measures.

An unnamed NATO official told Politico that the alliance is underpinned by faith in Article 5 on collective defence and by the members' commitment to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP.

"So long as we continue to make the investments, that's what keeps us on the side of the equation in which Russia wouldn't dare," the official emphasised.

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