Scientists analyse air pollution changes in Ukraine caused by full-scale war

Scientists have studied the impact of the full-scale war on air quality in Ukraine, finding that some Russian attacks increased pollutant concentrations by more than 1,000%, while long-term changes have been uneven.

Source: a study published in the journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research, as reported by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute

Details: The researchers combined ground-based and satellite observation data for 2019-2024 across all time scales, from short-term emissions caused by missile and drone strikes to cumulative long-term effects.

They analysed concentrations of:

• total suspended particles (TSP) – solid and liquid microparticles such as dust and metal compounds
• toxic gases formed during fuel combustion: carbon monoxide (CO), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and formaldehyde (CH₂O).

Out of tens of thousands of explosions resulting from Russian attacks, only 255 cases over three years (2022-2024) were directly linked to a deterioration in air quality.

Overall, pollutant concentrations increased by 100-400% after missile and drone strikes. In the most extreme cases, levels rose by more than 1,000%. Among them:

• The 9 March 2022 attack on the Izovat insulation materials plant in Zhytomyr increased suspended particle levels by 10,033%.
• Attacks on Kyiv on 20 July and 27 August 2024 raised CO levels by 1,108% and 896% respectively.
• Attacks on Kramatorsk on 17 and 22 February 2024 increased SO₂ levels by 1,854% and 2,031% respectively.
• The 16 April 2022 attack on Kyiv increased NO₂ levels by 1,065%.

Long-term changes are more complex, as they reflect not only emissions from attacks but also the destruction of industrial facilities, increased use of generators, internal population displacement leading to reduced transport emissions, shifts to more polluting fuels and other factors.

Over three years of full-scale war, scientists have identified the following trends:

• Levels of suspended particles have decreased in large cities but increased by 14% near the front line.
• SO₂ levels have risen overall (except in Donetsk Oblast), largely due to thermal power plants and factories switching to more polluting fuels, reduced natural gas consumption and increased use of diesel generators.
• NO₂ levels in large cities and near the front line have fallen by 10-30%, suggesting that reduced emissions from destroyed cities and industrial sites have outweighed emissions from military activity and wildfires caused by Russian strikes.
• CO levels in Mariupol have fallen by 10% after the destruction of the Azovstal plant.
• CH₂O levels have decreased by 10-12%, likely linked to changes in meteorological conditions.

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