Growing frustration with Putin spreads among Russian elite – The Guardian

Frustration with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is growing among Russian elites, driven by the prolonged war in Ukraine and the worsening economic situation in Russia.

Source: The Guardian, citing sources

Details: The Guardian noted that "interviews with several people in the orbit of the Russian leader, as well as sources in the Russian business world and western intelligence officials, paint a picture of an isolated leader surrounded by an elite that is becoming rapidly disillusioned, both with the faltering war in Ukraine and the economic downturn at home".

"There's definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin," said a source described by The Guardian as a "well-connected business leader".

According to the source, there is "a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming".

"No one believes everything will suddenly collapse tomorrow. But there is a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made. People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared," the source said.

The report stated that Putin's approval rating is falling, the economy is under increasing pressure and even pro-Kremlin bloggers who previously rarely criticised the Russian leader are beginning to express dissatisfaction.

Despite emerging fractures within the country, Putin's approach to the war in Ukraine has not changed and he remains determined to continue it, according to interviews with people familiar with his thinking and European and Ukrainian intelligence officials.

Putin has told his closest circle that he believes Moscow could capture the entire Donbas by the end of 2026, according to two sources familiar with his thinking.

"Putin is fixated on Donbas and he will not stop before that," one of them said.

Commenting on Putin's claim that the war in Ukraine is supposedly "coming to a close", sources said it should not be interpreted as a willingness to compromise. Instead, it reflects his belief that a military breakthrough is inevitable.

A Ukrainian intelligence official said Russian generals have convinced the Russian leader that Donbas will be captured by the end of 2026.

It remains unclear to what extent the Russian military and intelligence services present an overly optimistic picture to Putin.

"Even if many around him understand the reality of the situation, we still don't know what Putin himself understands. That's the most difficult part," said a senior European intelligence official.

"Of course, officials and the military paint a rosy picture for the president. They lie to him. That's how the system Putin has built works," said a source familiar with discussions inside the Kremlin. [N.B. Ukrainska Pravda does not recognise Putin as president – ed.]

Another factor influencing Putin's decision to continue the war is his loss of faith in US President Donald Trump's ability to push Kyiv into territorial concessions as part of any deal, according to a source close to Putin and another involved in informal talks.

"There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated," one source said.

At present, Moscow's objective remains the capture of Donbas. However, people close to Putin say his ambitions could expand again if he senses Ukraine beginning to collapse. In that case, according to two people familiar with his thinking, he could move further, crossing the Dnipro River in an attempt to seize all four Ukrainian oblasts that Russia enshrined in its constitution in 2022 but does not fully control.

"He is not a long-term strategist. His appetite grows as he eats," one source said.

Another topic discussed within the Moscow elite is internet restrictions in Russia.

"At the dinner table, everyone talks about the internet. We are now somewhere closer to North Korea," said one Kremlin insider. Chinese-style internet controls, once regularly mocked in Russia as symbols of censorship, are now being discussed with a degree of envy.

Meanwhile, according to two people familiar with discussions, some members of the Russian political elite, including Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, have tried in private to dissuade Putin from some of the harshest restrictions, but without success.

A senior European intelligence official said many within Russia's leadership are now in the "acknowledgement phase", admitting growing problems both on the battlefield and in the economy, but without any clear plan to address them.

"They understand it's a trend downwards. But I haven't heard of them asking ... 'What should we do about it then?'," the intelligence official said.

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