CNN: Russia struggles with military recruitment, rates down 20%

Russia is increasingly struggling to replenish its armed forces for the war against Ukraine, which could drive its leadership to consider unpopular measures such as forced mobilisation and exit bans.

Source: CNN, citing experts

Details: Janis Kluge, a German expert on the Russian economy, estimates that recruitment into Russian forces fell by 20% in the first quarter of this year compared with 2025. He says it is still showing signs of faltering.

CNN reports that Moscow is resorting to increasingly desperate measures to replenish its forces and that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin is likely to be forced into further unpopular decisions this year if he wishes to continue the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has already sent tens of thousands of former prisoners to the front line, received reinforcements in three separate waves of North Korean troops and encouraged migrants to join its armed forces. More recently, the government announced a new recruitment drive, offering to clear debts of up to US$140,000 for men who agree to serve and who might otherwise face penalties for default.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told CNN that Russia is also facing labour shortages across multiple sectors of the economy as a result of diverting manpower to the war against Ukraine.

There are signs that Russia's defence industry is already operating at full capacity, and it is becoming harder to expand military production as demand for workers places additional strain on the rest of the economy.

"The whole Russian economy is suffering from the most severe labour shortage in history," Gould-Davies said.

The shortage may force the Kremlin to draw on more labour from India, North Korea and various African countries to ease the burden on both the civilian and military sectors.

As a last resort, a second forced mobilisation could be carried out, combined with measures such as restricting citizens' freedom to leave the country, particularly for the men of conscription age. Putin aimed to avoid this, as the first "partial mobilisation" proved highly unpopular and prompted many Russians to emigrate.

"The Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice over whether to radically escalate its demands on Russia's economy and society or to scale back its war aims," Gould-Davies predicts.

Maria Snegovaya of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies believes the Kremlin may address its recruitment problems by increasing pressure on regions outside major cities, encouraging students to sign military contracts and recruiting more foreign nationals. The fact that the defence sector is approaching the limits of its capacity also creates difficulties for Putin, although this is "not catastrophic," she noted.

However, from an economic standpoint, "the strain is becoming increasingly visible," Snegovaya told CNN, adding that this year in particular, economic costs are finally forcing the Kremlin into difficult tradeoffs.

CNN also notes that Ukraine's advances in drone technology and other systems are inflicting far greater losses on Russia than at the start of the war. While Ukraine's military equipment continues to improve, the Russian military is weakening as increasing numbers of former prisoners and untrained soldiers are being sent to the front.

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