Russia steps up surveillance of European military and nuclear sites – analysis
Russia has intensified surveillance of critical military facilities in several European countries, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Source: The Guardian, citing the IISS, as reported by European Pravda
Details: Since the end of 2024, the IISS has examined 144 drone-related incidents across more than a dozen countries. According to the report, Russian activity has taken place in an environment of "substantial impunity" and highlights strategic shortcomings in NATO's air defence systems. Although drones have repeatedly been spotted over air bases and airports, none has been shot down or intercepted.
The drone flights, believed to have been carried out by Russia, reportedly targeted strategically important sites.
Quote: "Unusual drones flew low into RAF Lakenheath, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and at least two other US air force bases in England in late November 2024. US nuclear weapons were deployed at Lakenheath in July 2025."
Details: In December 2025, at least five drones flew over the Île Longue naval base in France, where the country's sea-based nuclear weapons are stored.
In November and December 2025, drones were also sighted over Kleine-Brogel airbase in Belgium and Volkel airbase in the Netherlands. Both facilities store US nuclear weapons.
The report links the drone flights to two vessels belonging to Russia's shadow fleet. The ships HAV Dolphin and Seasons 1, which were operating in the North Sea near British military bases when the drones were observed, may have served as launch platforms.
The Hav Dolphin had previously attracted the attention of German security authorities. In May 2025, for example, it was suspected of being used to control drones flying over Bundeswehr facilities containing classified information. However, several searches of the vessel conducted by the German Federal Police, Water Police and Belgian forces found no evidence.
Nevertheless, the IISS assesses that the drone flights were highly likely to have been connected to a Russian mission. According to analyst Charlie Edwards, they represent "a series of tactical successes for the Kremlin" and "a strategic failure of allied defences".
Edwards believes the objectives combine nuclear surveillance, broader intelligence gathering, mapping military logistics and supply chains, as well as "economic attrition and psychological warfare".
According to the IISS, the number of reported drone incidents has declined in recent months because several European countries have begun intercepting and detaining suspicious vessels, particularly in the Baltic Sea.
However, according to research by Greenpeace, increased regulatory pressure is forcing the shadow fleet to seek new routes, including within the Baltic Sea. Ageing and uninsured tankers are increasingly bypassing Swedish waters and transporting Russian oil closer to Germany's coastline, despite the longer journey.
Greenpeace has called on Germany to take stronger action. Marine biologist Thilo Maack said that German authorities must finally take action and stop and inspect unregistered shadow fleet tankers. He added that the shadow fleet poses a significant environmental threat.
Background:
- Sweden's military intelligence believes the Russian regime is likely to remain a threat to its neighbours long after Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin leaves power.
- The Dutch Ministry of Defence recently described Russia as the principal threat to Europe in its plan for modernising the country's armed forces and defence sector.
- Earlier, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Russia could stage a "false flag operation" to justify an attack on a NATO member state.
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