For more than two years, Ukraine has been relentlessly dismantling the foundations of Russia's oil industry, striking refineries, fuel depots and transport infrastructure. While the campaign initially focused on depriving the Russian military of fuel, it later broadened to target the Russian economy as a whole by seeking to trigger a systemic crisis.
In recent weeks, the nature of these operations has also evolved, as drones are now increasingly targeting Russia's maritime logistics. Tankers, cargo ships, tugboats and ferries operating in the Azov and Black Seas have all come under attack.
The campaign's key objective is to make it increasingly risky for Russia to use the maritime routes that supply occupied Crimea, transport military cargo and carry crude oil and petroleum products to foreign markets.
As repeated strikes on the Kerch Bridge and disruptions to overland supply routes have constrained Russia's land-based logistics, these maritime connections have become one of the Kremlin's most important lifelines for sustaining its forces in Crimea.
Small river-sea class tankers use these routes to deliver petroleum products to the peninsula and to transport fuel for transfer to larger ocean-going tankers. Read on to find out what makes this operation unique, what it has achieved so far and the strategic objective behind it.
Surgical precision
The latest phase of Ukraine's campaign against Russia's energy and logistics infrastructure has taken the form of Operation MoLoChKa [Ukr. "Москва Ляже Через Крим", literally "Moscow Will Fall Through Crimea" – ed.]. It stands out even against the backdrop of Ukraine's previous successful campaigns. Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported that their drones had struck 196 vessels supporting Russia's maritime logistics during the first 18 days of July. Of those, 126 were hit in the Sea of Azov and 70 in the Black Sea.
The targets included tankers, bulk carriers, ferries, tugboats and specialised vessels transporting petroleum products and military cargo. What sets the operation apart, however, is not the number of strikes but their nature. According to Mykhailo Honchar, President of the Strategy XXI Centre for Global Studies, Ukrainian forces deliberately avoid sinking the vessels.
"Tankers are targeted with surgical precision," he said. "If a naval drone is used, it strikes the propeller and rudder assembly at the stern, causing the vessel to lose manoeuvrability. If the attack is carried out by an aerial drone, the target is the bridge, where the ship's controls are concentrated. The vessel is put out of action and requires repairs. This does not result in an oil spill or pose the risk of an environmental disaster."
Damaged vessels are left adrift and require towing, disrupting the movement of other ships. Russia, meanwhile, is forced to divert resources to repairs, recovery operations and the replacement of damaged vessels.
In this way, Ukraine turns even relatively minor damage into a problem for Russia's entire logistics system. The more vessels are put out of action, the harder it becomes to maintain uninterrupted fuel supplies to Crimea and sustain exports of Russian petroleum products.
The tactic also minimises the risk of large-scale marine pollution from oil spills while achieving the primary military objective of paralysing the operation of Russia's transport fleet. However, fuel spills cannot always be avoided.
The impact of the attacks
Despite nearly 200 successful strikes, the operation has not brought Russian maritime exports to a standstill. Its first effects, however, are already becoming apparent. The greatest impact has been on logistics in the Sea of Azov, where Russia relies on a feeder fleet of small tankers to transport petroleum products to occupied Crimea and the Kerch Strait.
"The paralysis of Russia's feeder fleet makes it impossible to export crude oil from Russian transshipment terminals and loading facilities via the Volga-Don Canal and the Sea of Azov to larger tankers," said Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. "Unable to enter the ports, those tankers instead load cargo from shuttle tankers anchored in the Black Sea, each taking on the equivalent cargo of 12 to 15 feeder vessels."
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The campaign has effectively made the route too risky to use. Seaborne exports of petroleum products from Sea of Azov ports have come to a halt, according to Andrii Klymenko, editor-in-chief of BlackSeaNews. Even before exports ceased altogether, export volumes and the number of voyages had fallen by half during the first half of July.
The campaign has also taken a toll on Russia's Black Sea ports. "During the first 20 days of July, petroleum product exports from the Black Sea ports fell by almost half, to one million tonnes, while the number of tankers dropped from 55 to 27. This is most likely due to disruptions in logistics chains caused by the attacks," Klymenko said.
Moscow must now repair its damaged fleet. According to Klymenko, every damaged vessel must first be towed to a safe location, and limited repair capacity has created a backlog. "There are huge queues at shipyards. Repairing a single vessel can cost between US$2 million and US$5 million," he said.
Honchar argues that the campaign's impact should be assessed alongside Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries. "All these strikes have halted exports of Russia's main petroleum products. Russia no longer exports petrol, jet fuel exports have ceased, and diesel exports have fallen to negligible levels – just 4% of what they were before the drone strikes on refineries and other oil and logistics infrastructure began," the expert said.
In his view, if Ukraine maintains the current pace of strikes, Russia's financial losses in 2026 could amount to tens of billions of dollars. "It is impossible to put an exact figure on it now, but if the pace of strikes does not decline, Russia will lose several tens of billions of dollars," Honchar said.
What comes next
At first glance, the main objective of Operation MoLoChKa may appear to be disrupting fuel supplies to occupied Crimea. However, experts interviewed by Ekonomichna Pravda believe its real aim could be far broader. According to Honchar, Ukraine is gradually laying the groundwork for a full maritime blockade of Russia's Black Sea ports.
"Not only oil tankers but also bulk carriers are coming under attack. The aim is to gain fire advantage over the eastern part of the Black Sea," he said, using the Ukrainian military term for the ability to strike targets throughout an area and deny the enemy freedom of movement.
The campaign is also affecting Russia's agricultural exports. "You'll get jack shit in foreign currency from Black Sea grain exports, you worms," Robert "Magyar" Brovdi said, announcing that shipping through the Azov-Don Canal has come to a halt. Before the campaign began, Russia exported about 30% of its grain via the route.
Russia continues to wage its own campaign against Ukraine's grain exports. Strikes on the ports of Greater Odesa – Odesa, Pivnichnyi and Chornomorsk – have reduced Ukraine's export capacity by about one-third. Traffic through Ukraine's maritime grain corridor came to a halt on 22 July. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged that Russian attacks on commercial vessels are likely to intensify.
As a result, exports from both Ukraine and Russia – which together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports – are at risk of disruption. While global grain prices continue to rise, domestic prices in Ukraine have fallen. Russia, meanwhile, cannot fully exploit the situation while Ukrainian drones keep its maritime logistics under pressure.
Russia has warned ships of the dangers of operating within its exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea. It has also redeployed drone operators from Rubikon, its elite unmanned systems unit, from the battlefield to protect its shadow fleet against Ukrainian drones.
Honchar argues that the campaign will only deliver meaningful results if it remains sustained and relentless. "This is an operation with no fixed end date. It has to be maintained continuously. As soon as the pressure eases, Russia's logistics will begin recovering very quickly," he said.
He believes the next logical step would be to integrate long-range missiles into the campaign. "Adding a missile component to naval and aerial drones could further restrict Russia's foreign trade through the Black Sea. This is exactly how Russia once blockaded Ukraine's ports," he said.
Magyar has clearly set out the strategic objective: the shadow fleet must be eliminated: "Every tanker has been identified. They are all part of the shadow fleet and are subject to international sanctions. We will turn every vessel into a drifting barge – blind and deaf. We'll keep hitting them for as long as it takes."
Translated by Myroslava Zavadska
Edited by Artem Yakymyshyn