WSJ: Russia holds mobilisation exercise in Kaliningrad Oblast

Russian military officials conducted an exercise in Kaliningrad Oblast in July to test procedures for mobilising local residents.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, citing Western intelligence officials

Details: Western intelligence officials told the WSJ that Russian military officers had flown from St Petersburg to Kaliningrad Oblast last month, where they oversaw readiness planning and mobilisation procedures for local residents, including arrangements for their accommodation, food and weapons.

The exercise in Kaliningrad Oblast was just one of many such drills being held across Russia in preparation for a possible mobilisation.

The sources said the Kremlin has not yet decided whether to launch such measures and is unlikely to do so before the parliamentary elections at the end of September. However, Russian leader Vladimir Putin's determination to seize the entire Donbas could push him to take such a step.

The WSJ said that Moscow has failed in recent months to recruit enough new troops to replace battlefield losses, while the growing use of Ukrainian drones has "reduced the average Russian soldier's lifespan on the front to a matter of minutes, days or weeks". These manpower problems may leave Putin with no choice but to announce a new wave of mobilisation, US and European officials said.

Western intelligence also believes that, in the event of a possible escalation with the West, Russia could seize part of the Suwałki Gap, a strip of land linking Kaliningrad with Belarus through neighbouring Poland and Lithuania

The WSJ reported that rumours of a possible new mobilisation have caused concern inside Russia in recent weeks and months, with men searching online for ways to leave the country in an emergency. Some Russians have already identified places where they could stay for several months to wait out a possible mobilisation.

A mobilisation could help reinforce Russia's line of contact and accelerate its advance towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast. However, if it were launched this late in the year, before fighting slows in winter, it is unclear what practical effect the move would have.

Background: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 11 August that Russia is preparing to carry out additional mobilisation in the autumn after its sham parliamentary elections.

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