Russia unable to export oil as refineries can no longer process it after Ukrainian strikes

Average seaborne shipments of Russian crude oil fell to 3.46 million barrels a day in the four weeks leading up to 23 August amid Ukrainian attacks on refineries, Black Sea ports and tankers.

Source: Bloomberg

Details: Previously, shutdowns at Russian refineries had left more crude available for export. That effect has now been offset by a decline in shipments from the Black Sea following attacks on oil tankers.

Moscow was forced to redirect Kazakh oil to Novorossiysk. This freed up capacity for Russian crude at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, which is considered less vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

Meanwhile, strikes on oil and gas processing facilities have reduced fuel production and exacerbated shortages on the domestic market. Kremlin bans on exports of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel are further restricting oil revenues for the Russian budget.

According to OPEC secondary-source estimates, Russia produced 8.887 million barrels of crude oil per day in July. Bloomberg says this was the lowest level in six years and almost 1 million barrels a day below Russia's permitted level under the OPEC+ agreement.

Meanwhile, Russia's seaborne crude exports remain relatively high: since the beginning of 2026, they have been about 9% above the highest annual average recorded since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Background:

• In July, Ukrainian strikes knocked out more than 30% of Russia's oil refining capacity, with daily processing volumes falling to their lowest level since 2005.
• In August, the first seaborne shipment of petrol from India arrived in Russia amid fuel shortages caused by attacks on refineries.

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