Russia losing 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than it can recruit – The Guardian

Russia's losses in Ukraine are exceeding the pace of new recruitment by around 6,000 troops per month, prompting the Kremlin to shift its focus towards large-scale strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure.

Source: The Guardian

Details: According to Western officials, Russia continues to replenish its forces at a high rate, recruiting around 1,000 people a day. However, over the past two months, even these numbers have been insufficient to compensate for battlefield losses.

"We estimate that the gap between the number of people Russia is losing to casualties and the number they're being able to recruit is around 6,000 a month at the moment," one Western government official said.

He stressed that, in response to the shortage of manpower, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin had resorted to escalation and large-scale strikes on civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine.

Since the beginning of July, Russian forces have launched more than 360 missiles, taking advantage of Ukraine's limited number of air defence systems capable of responding to ballistic weapons.

"It's clear that Moscow intends to try and break Ukrainian morale by destroying its energy infrastructure this winter," the official said.

Western officials said the Kremlin was resorting to this tactic because of its limited ability to replenish losses through a new mobilisation.

Experts believe another wave of forced mobilisation would pose significant political and economic risks for Putin. During the previous mobilisation campaign in autumn 2022, around one million Russians left the country, mostly highly skilled professionals, of whom fewer than half returned.

It is also unclear whether the Russian military would be able to accommodate several hundred thousand new recruits, given shortages of equipment and officers.

According to Western officials, Putin's strategic goal is to wage a prolonged war of attrition, betting that Western allies will become exhausted and reduce their support for Kyiv out of fear of Russian threats.

"It's important to keep in mind that this is not new. Russia has invoked the threat of the possible use of nuclear weapons numerous times in recent years to try to scare us into ending support for Ukraine," another Western official added.

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