Ukraine nearly out of F-16 missiles used to intercept Russian jet-powered drones – The Economist

Ukraine is nearly out of US-made AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles for F-16 fighter jets, which are used to intercept Russian cruise missiles and new jet-powered drones.

Source: The Economist

Details: Ukrainian air defence lacks sufficient missiles to intercept the new Russian Geran-4 and Geran-5 UAVs, which can fly at speeds of up to 600 km/h, while Russia is producing around 3,000 of them a month.

Their turbojet engines are mostly supplied from China, although some components are manufactured directly in Russia using smuggled Western 3D printers. Alongside the larger Banderol drones, these UAVs increasingly resemble inexpensive cruise missiles, leaving F-16 fighter jets critically short of AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles to intercept them.

Ukraine is developing its own interceptor drones to counter Russian UAVs, but the situation with defence against ballistic weapons is even more difficult.

Ukraine's stockpile of PAC-3 missiles for Patriot systems is now also nearly depleted. Large-scale new deliveries from the US are unlikely because American stockpiles have been depleted by the war with Iran.

Meanwhile, Russia has increased ballistic missile production to around 100 a month: 60 Iskander-M missiles and 40 RM-48U missiles.

There are some expectations surrounding the planned delivery of several older French-Italian SAMP/T air defence batteries, along with Aster missiles, to Ukraine by the end of 2026. Next year, Ukraine is due to receive eight of the latest SAMP/T NG systems.

Quote: "The new system has a more advanced radar for the final stage of guidance and can handle multiple manoeuvring ballistic missiles, such as Russia's Iskander-M. The Aster has a warhead that explodes next to the incoming missile, rather than the PAC-3's 'hit-to-kill' impact. But French army sources claim it outperforms the Patriot in some respects. It is also less than half the US$7m price of the latest export version of the PAC-3."

Details: Under a licence, Germany plans to produce up to 200 less powerful PAC-2 missiles a year, some of which could be supplied to Ukraine with the agreement of NATO countries.

A joint European-Ukrainian project called Freyja is intended to fundamentally change the situation. Its ambition has been compared with that of a "moonshot" programme. Its goal is to provide Ukraine and its European allies with a significantly cheaper and more numerous alternative to PAC-3 missiles that will work with NATO-standard radars and data-link systems.

The planned interceptor is based on the Ukrainian FP-7 short-range ballistic missile. Sensors, guidance and control systems will be supplied by 12 European defence companies, including France's Thales, Italy's Leonardo, Germany's Diehl and Sweden's Saab.

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