Ukraine to lose 30 million tonnes of agricultural exports this season unless ports are unblocked, minister says

Andrii Muravskyi - 2 October, 11:55

Amid Russia's blockade of Black Sea ports, Ukraine is exporting up to 50% of its potential volumes.

Source: Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, quoted by Interfax-Ukraine

Details: The minister told journalists that as of late September and early October, Ukraine's agricultural exports amounted to up to 50% of their potential due to the ongoing Russian blockade of Black Sea ports.

Quote from Vysotskyi: "Without accessible deep-water Black Sea ports, we can export about half of the export-oriented products we have grown. When we talk about the consequences, it means the inability to export about 30 million tonnes of agricultural products worth about US$30 billion in the current marketing year."

Details: The minister specified that 2.4 million tonnes were successfully exported in September, or 46% of what should have been exported. This included 1.4 million tonnes of grain (38%), 444,000 tonnes of oilseeds (83%), 311,000 tonnes of oil (64%), and 280,000 tonnes of meal (46% of the potential required export).

Quote from Vysotskyi: "This 46% has essentially remained unchanged since 20 September. That is, we are reaching what we predicted: that 45-50% is the objective maximum using current routes."

Details: He said that 41%, or 993,000 tonnes, were exported by rail, which matches forecasts; 54%, or 1.3 million tonnes, via the Danube; and 5%, or 120,000 tonnes, by road.

Quote from Vysotskyi: "In September, we increased the volumes exported both by rail and via the Danube compared to August."

Background:

Ukraine exported 630,000 tonnes of agricultural products in early September, about 40% of its potential with ports operating. The figure was 33% in August.
Türkiye and the United Nations are arranging new talks between Russia and Ukraine to discuss a Black Sea ceasefire in an attempt to bring together scattered efforts to protect grain shipments amid soaring global food prices.

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