Estonia relocates troops closer to Russian border – FT

Estonia is redeploying a key brigade from the city of Tapa to Jõhvi, located 50 km from the Russian border, as it prepares for potential Russian escalation.

Source: European Pravda, citing Financial Times

Details: According to Estonian officials, the country is continuously moving troops closer to the border with Russia and procuring weapons capable of striking deep into Russian territory as it prepares for possible aggression by Moscow beyond Ukraine.

FT writes that Estonian military and intelligence chiefs do not believe Russia seeks a full-scale war with NATO, at least within the next two years. Meanwhile, they are convinced that Moscow is preparing for a possible future conflict with Estonia.

This has prompted Estonia, which lacks its own air force, to shift to an "active defence" strategy.

"We have to start from the border and win from the first battles," declared Colonel Tarmo Kundla, commander of the First Estonian Brigade, the country's primary fighting force.

His unit is permanently redeploying from Tapa to Jõhvi, where large new facilities are currently being constructed to house soldiers.

"Deterrence is not working. The critical period to address that, for all of us in the Baltic states, is in the next one to four years," noted an Estonian military intelligence representative.

Meanwhile, the Estonian Ministry of Defence emphasised that they must make aggression against the country "unthinkable".

"Our aim is clear: to keep the enemy and the destruction of war away from Estonian territory," the Ministry of Defence stressed.

In May, the Estonian government introduced the term "active defence" into its national security concept. Since then, the country's armed forces have initiated a quiet but radical reorganisation. Elite units are being continuously redeployed from Tapa, Estonia's primary military base, to positions closer to the Russian border. Additionally, a new base for 1,000 service members is under construction in the border city of Narva.

Over the past year, the country signed contracts to acquire nine American Himars multiple launch rocket systems, M57 ballistic missiles with a strike range of up to 300 km and nine South Korean Chunmoo MLRS with a similar range. It should be noted that the distance from Estonian border bases to Russia's Saint Petersburg is 260 km.

In the decade following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Estonian military strategists developed a defence doctrine shaped by the country's history and geography. Under this approach, in the event of aggression, conscripts would rapidly mobilise and conduct a tactical, quasi-guerrilla defence to delay Russian troops and inflict casualties until NATO reinforcements arrived.

However, after observing Russia's actions in Ukraine, Estonian military leaders concluded that such a plan would not work. They now believe that the Kremlin disregards casualties while fighting to hold captured territory even after everything on it has been destroyed.

Estonia now plans to fight for every inch of territory and inflict powerful strikes against Russia hundreds of kilometres behind the frontline from the very first day of any invasion.

"Militarily this is very demanding. We cannot shape the enemy [by retreating or tactically luring them into situations]. We have to build our lines today. It is forward defence," stated Kundla.

Estonian military intelligence is particularly apprehensive about potential limited actions targeting a border objective – specifically, the small, predominantly Russian-speaking city of Narva. This could serve as a provocative test of NATO's resolve, aimed at fracturing the alliance.

Background:

• As reported, Estonia's defence spending in 2027 and beyond will exceed 5% of GDP, with total national defence expenditure reaching €2.2 billion.
• Neighbouring Lithuania, jointly with Poland, is developing an international civilian evacuation plan to be utilised should it become necessary to evacuate portions of the populations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia across the border.

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