Ali Baba and the Forty Statesmen: how Yermak lost his position as the president's right-hand man and avoided charges

Denial, anger, bargaining, acceptance (of Andrii Yermak's resignation) – that's the briefest way to describe the nearly three-week-long marathon of events surrounding the former head of the President's Office.

A figure who, over a period of almost six years, had grown so powerful that even the president seemed unwilling to dismiss him on his own.

Ukrainska Pravda was the first to report on 12 November that Andrii Yermak, then head of the Office of the President, might be about to become the next person of interest in Operation Midas, the recent investigation into corruption in Ukraine's energy sector involving several top officials.

At that time – on day three after the publication of the Mindich tapes – few could have imagined that just two weeks later, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) would be forcing their way into the government quarter to carry out urgent investigative actions at the residence of the man who is, if not the first, certainly the second most influential person in the country.

The last person who wanted to believe this was the president of Ukraine.

But at 06:00 on 28 November, as three vehicles carrying anti-corruption officers approached the government quarter checkpoint from Shovkovychna Street, there was no longer any room for doubt. The president, the head of his Office and the authorities as a whole had to make some quick decisions, and find a way – and the right people – to move forward so as to avoid total collapse.

Ukrainska Pravda has learned how President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took the decision to remove Yermak, how key security officials reacted, and what was said in the secret "revolutionary" group chat where senior officials had banded together to remove Yermak from power.

The first searches targeting Yermak

Andrii Yermak may not realise this, but what saved him from the first high-profile searches wasn't the heads of law enforcement bodies he'd written to asking for help, but a single soldier at a checkpoint in the government quarter.

When the NABU and SAPO officers and witnesses to the search – around ten people in all – approached the concrete barriers on Shovkovychna Street, they faced unexpected obstacles.

It turned out that their law enforcement IDs and a court warrant dated 21 November were not sufficient to get them past the sign that reads: "Restricted Area. Entry (Access) Prohibited (Closed)". The senior officer at the checkpoint, armed with an automatic rifle, blocked the investigators' path and began making phone calls.

"We're simply suggesting that one of you accompanies us, that's all," a NABU detective said.

The checkpoint officer kept insisting, however, that a representative of the operational security department would be arriving shortly and the question of entry to the government quarter could only be resolved after that.

"You're stalling. An investigative action is an urgent action. Please could someone just come with us," the NABU officers continued, stressing the urgency.

"I understand that, but I have a procedure to follow," the government guard calmly replied, raising his voice.

"There is the law – that's the main procedure," the anti-corruption officers responded just as loudly. "I have grounds to believe that documents which may be evidence are being destroyed right now." Filming the investigative action, they walked into the government quarter regardless of the checkpoint officer's objections – and despite the automatic rifle he had swung round from his back to his shoulder at the start of the exchange.

An Ukrainska Pravda journalist then witnessed the checkpoint commander making several tense phone conversations. Judging by the context, he was explaining himself to his superiors, and those on the other end of the line were far from pleased.

According to Ukrainska Pravda sources in law enforcement, only Yermak's residence near the President's Office was searched; the investigators decided not to enter his office on the first floor of the building on Bankova Street.

Even so, NABU and SAPO managed to seize two laptops and several mobile phones, which anti-corruption officials say they started to examine that same day.

At around 14:00, the anti-corruption officers left the government quarter. However, the Ukrainska Pravda film crew had spotted the heads of NABU and SAPO leaving the area earlier. At that point, it had become clear that Andrii Yermak would not be served with a notice of suspicion that day.

The fact that the search warrant for the head of the President's Office was dated 21 November may confirm that not only was President Zelenskyy aware of potential issues concerning his closest aide, he also had at least a week to remove him before the investigative actions began.

Despite yet another disinformation campaign launched by the President's Office – claiming that the searches would derail negotiations and that Yermak was indispensable – NABU and SAPO appear to have decided to strike at corruption, not at the state, at a time when the country is plunged into full-scale war.

"It's only a matter of time before a notice of suspicion is served on him," sources in law enforcement circles told Ukrainska Pravda.

And it seems Andrii Yermak decided not to waste that time. Faced with two options – leaving the country or shielding himself from a criminal case by joining the armed forces – he chose the latter.

Yermak's final hours in office

While the NABU investigators and SAPO prosecutors were searching Yermak's residence on Shovkovychna Street, a complex process of political reassessment was unfolding at his workplace – the centre of decision-making.

Operation Midas, conceived as a demonstration of institutional independence during wartime, revealed a different dimension in practice: the blow against the person who epitomised the core of the power vertical inevitably became a test for the president himself.

At 09:00, four senior officials arrived at the President's Office: Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Security Service head Vasyl Maliuk, NABU director Semen Kryvonos and SAPO head Oleksandr Klymenko.

Maliuk's presence at the meeting was no coincidence. As Ukrainska Pravda has learned, throughout the previous week Yermak had been trying to get the Security Service head dismissed, claiming he had "let Operation Midas happen" and failed to protect him.

President Zelenskyy's mood as he received the visitors was that of someone who has suddenly realised that the battles raging on two fronts – external and internal – threatened not just individual political figures, but the very governability of the state.

According to Ukrainska Pravda sources, this was at least the third such meeting in the past two weeks since the start of Mindichgate. But this time the heads of the anti-corruption agencies were accompanied, as negotiators, by Maliuk and Fedorov.

The discussion revolved around a dilemma sharpened by wartime contrasts: the fight against corruption must be uncompromising, yet it must not destroy diplomatic opportunities that depend on the appearance of stability.

Zelenskyy's team was therefore looking for an option in which the active phase of the searches targeting the head of the President's Office would not be interpreted by Ukraine's international partners as a sign of chaos – something that could undermine the fragile balance in the peace dialogue.

The president listened to the arguments without his usual political armour, increasingly leaning towards the obvious conclusion: the state should not be subordinated to a single point of personal leverage, one that had accumulated excessive influence and lost touch with reality.

There had also been signals from within the government indicating that Yermak had to go. Ukrainska Pravda sources say several key figures had made this clear over the previous two weeks: Deputy PM Mykhailo Fedorov; Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk; Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal; and even Oleh Tatarov – once considered one of Yermak's people – to whom Ali Baba (one of Yermak's codenames) had also "assigned tasks" related to anti-corruption officials.

Last week the president had appeared to be listening to their arguments, but at the last minute everything changed again. Yermak even headed the Ukrainian delegation at talks with the US in Switzerland.

After an hour of discussion in Zelenskyy's office, the heads of NABU and SAPO left the government quarter without serving Yermak with a notice of suspicion, and the president paused to reflect on the situation.

There was no contact with Yermak at that time.

Finally, after several hours, the president made the final decision to let Yermak go. He summoned Mykhailo Fedorov to help put together a video address in which the resignation of the head of the President's Office would be announced to the nation.

"What tipped the scales was that this could not be avoided, and that absolutely everyone supported it: MPs, law enforcement, the public, and key international partners," one person involved in the process said, speaking off the record. "It was a state-oriented decision: the country needed to reboot multiple key institutions and critical processes."

Ukraine's US partners would probably agree. Ukrainska Pravda has learned that for the past six months, the Americans had been trying and failing to get across to Zelenskyy that Yermak should be replaced as the chief negotiator.

They had tried using both public tools and strongly-worded anonymous comments to Western media, including an extensive analytical piece in Politico, as well as making discreet attempts to find alternative channels of communication with Ukraine, such as the head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

The first few days of power without Yermak

"Nothing pleases me more in the president's photos this Saturday than the empty chair to his right."

This message was written by one of Ukraine's top officials, referring to meetings held on the third floor of the President's Office without Andrii Yermak.

But curious readers won't find this remark anywhere online. It was posted in a secret "revolutionary" group chat where influential members of the government – risking exposure by the all-powerful head of the President's Office – coordinated their efforts to get Yermak removed from power.

Ukrainska Pravda has not yet established the full list of the members of this clandestine "revolutionary committee". But it is clear that it included figures from the very highest tier of government.

"Yermak's resignation had become unavoidable. He simply united everyone against him," one of the "revolutionaries" told Ukrainska Pravda, adding indirect proof: the joke about the "empty chair next to the president" had garnered more likes than any other message in the history of their private chat.

Though it was clearly meant to be humorous, there was something deeply symbolic about the remark as well.

Throughout his tenure, Yermak had been focused – if not fixated – on appointing "his people" to as many posts as possible. The latest Cabinet of Ministers, or indeed almost any major reshuffle in recent years, illustrates this clearly.

Yet when it was crunch time for Yermak himself, not one of his appointees or protégés – even those whose careers would not have existed without him – came to his defence. A man once served by hundreds suddenly found himself entirely alone.

Even the person whose name and authority Yermak had effectively used to co-govern the state for years turned away.

Yermak had contributed to this outcome himself, dispelling any lingering doubts Zelenskyy may have had about asking him to step down. Members of the president's team told Ukrainska Pravda that when Yermak was asked to write his resignation letter, he unleashed a half-hour-long tirade against the president, filled with insults, reproaches and accusations.

"Yermak didn't believe until the very last moment that the top man [Zelenskyy – ed.] would remove him. Especially like this – presenting it as a fait accompli. Apparently what angered him most was the feeling that the president had abandoned him," said someone from Yermak's inner circle.

For Zelenskyy the parting was clearly easier, though still far from pleasant. This isn't the first friend the president has had to remove from his team: there have been Andrii Bohdan, Ivan Bakanov, and even Serhii Shefir, who was like an elder brother to him. But for Yermak, this was his first such experience, which perhaps explains his emotional outburst.

"The break was awful. But it's good that the president has finally realised whom he had been sheltering and now sees everything clearly. Like Kay after the Snow Queen," one high-ranking official told Ukrainska Pravda.

Most of the members of the president's team that Ukrainska Pravda spoke to agree that Zelenskyy seems to have returned to an earlier version of himself since Yermak stepped down.

"Now he's full of energy again. Very much like the president circa 24 February 2022," one team member said, speaking off the record. "And we're all back with him. Saturday's meetings were very good. The motivation and focus were truly incredible."

Just how resilient the government is in the post-Yermak era, and how capable it is of making decisions, will become clear as early as this week.

Several crucial tasks lie ahead, each with political implications, and each sending out signals to both the government and Ukraine's international partners.

First, the president must choose the next head of his Office. Depending on which candidate is chosen, it will become clear whether the break with Yermak was merely a cosmetic refurbishment or the beginning of a major structural overhaul of the governing system.

As of the start of this week, the most likely candidates according to Ukrainska Pravda sources were Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal, and Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the President's Office for Defence.

It's also possible that the role may be offered to First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhii Kyslytsia, who is currently involved in the negotiations with the United States. His appointment could shift the focus of the role from controversies and domestic intrigues to major international work, which could help stabilise the political situation.

One contender who won't be moving to the President's Office is Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko. Firstly, Svyrydenko herself would regard such a move as a step down, and secondly, it would necessitate enormous efforts to reset the entire Cabinet.

Parliament, meanwhile, still needs to muster up votes for the budget, which was supposed to have been passed last week but was deemed too risky to bring to the floor. As of early this week, the necessary votes still had not been confirmed.

Additionally, Parliament is preparing to fill several vacant government posts. As Ukrainska Pravda has learned, Zelenskyy has already chosen a justice minister. The scandal-ridden Denys Maliuska is to be replaced by Denys Maslov, who currently chairs the parliamentary legal committee.

But an energy minister has yet to be found. Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi and Andrii Herus from the ruling party, previously considered frontrunners, have declined the position. For now, acting minister Artem Nekrasov will continue in the role, while a major recruitment process begins to find a new minister.

* * *

"The situation is still fragile. You know, it's like when one of your teeth goes bad and starts to ache, and it hurts so much that you can't chew with any of your teeth at all. And now that tooth has been pulled out, but no one knows for sure yet whether it infected the others and whether they can still function." That's how one of Ukrainska Pravda's sources in parliament describes the situation within the authorities.

The system has adapted fairly quickly to Andrii Yermak's dismissal. But for genuinely meaningful change to take place, Zelenskyy needs to do more than just replace one person. He needs to rethink the very role of an institution such as the President's Office.

First of all, the Office must abandon the shameful practice of using selective coercive pressure against anyone they don't like. Bringing the law enforcement bodies back to their senses, so that they stop acting as "cashiers" and become protectors of the law once again, is one of the first tasks that the new team in the President's Office must address.

It's also essential to examine how the president ended up in open conflict with most of the country's leading independent media. If all that his media advisers have to suggest is creating conflict and exerting crude pressure on inconvenient editorial teams, then maybe they're just bad advisers?

And above all, it must be understood that what the president himself rightly asks of society – unity – is not a constant, but something that has to be worked on every day.

Authors: Roman Romaniuk, Sevğil Musaieva and Mykhailo Tkach

Translation: Myroslava Zavadska

Editing: Teresa Pearce