The all-out war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine has now entered its fifth year, driving the need for arms supplies to be ramped up month after month.
Russia has entirely shifted to a war footing, relying mainly on its own military-industrial complex which is now running at full tilt. Ukraine, meanwhile, depends on unstable external support while simultaneously expanding its domestic defence sector, which has reached unprecedented levels over the past four years.
Europe is undergoing change as well. EU countries are unveiling new assistance packages, funnelling more funds into their own defence industries and investing in Ukraine's arms production. Yet that backing does not come without conditions, as securing it still requires an ongoing effort. It has now been a year since the White House effectively reduced new aid allocations for Ukraine to near zero.
For Kyiv, the move came as a harsh wake-up call. For Europe, it was a test of its resolve. Instead of scaling up weapons supplies, as Russia continues to do, efforts have shifted towards ensuring that existing levels of support have not slipped.
In this Ukrainska Pravda report, we examine which weapons Ukraine will receive in 2026 and whether partner countries are prepared to expand their backing.
Keeping up the pace
At the outset of the invasion, Ukraine had enough arms for just two months of fighting. Its domestic defence industry, crippled by Russian strikes, possessed less than a tenth of the capacity it has today.
Western arms deliveries in 2022 were a pivotal factor that enabled Ukrainian forces to turn the tide in key sectors of the front. This was when Ukrainian troops dealt substantial blows to Russian units and liberated parts of Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts, while also initiating the systematic modernisation of their arsenal with Western arms.
Ukraine received Patriot air defence systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems that enabled strikes deep into Russian territory, and tens of thousands of other weapons, ammunition and missiles.
Between 2022 and early 2025, the US, EU countries, and other Ukrainian allies allocated €130 billion in military assistance to Kyiv. They transferred arms and equipment from their warehouses and arsenals and entered long-term manufacturing contracts. The scale of this aid was so vast that some packages allocated at the start are still reaching Ukraine today.
Maintaining this delivery pace proved extremely challenging for Kyiv's Western partners. In 2023, the main hurdle was transferring weapons intended for offensive use, such as infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, aircraft and cruise missiles. Many nations feared escalation and scrutinised each step.
The consistency of aid also hinges on domestic politics within Europe. Local and parliamentary elections in several countries have brought new governments, prompting a reassessment of policies on supporting Ukraine. In Poland and Czechia, official rhetoric on aid has grown more cautious, while Slovakia has effectively stopped military assistance. Hungary continues to persistently block specific EU-level decisions.
Yet none of these developments matches the magnitude of the shift in US backing for Ukraine following Donald Trump's return to the White House.
New realities
Falling US aid left Europe looking for solutions to sustain weapons deliveries at the level of earlier years.
The first real test of Europe's ability to provide military aid independently had already come. In autumn 2023, a US domestic political crisis stopped new aid packages for months. Ukraine's military again felt a shortage of arms, which caused Europe to look for alternative solutions.
At that point, a Czech-led ammunition initiative came into being, under which participating countries allocated funds and organised the procurement and delivery of shells from global suppliers. By 2025, Ukraine had received 4.4 million artillery rounds through this initiative.
While US aid was on hold, the UK and Latvia set up the Drone Capability Coalition, enabling the purchase of drones from allied countries and Ukrainian manufacturers. The programme received over €1.8 billion in 2024, while another €2.75 billion was pledged for 2025.
Meanwhile, billions of euros began flowing into the Ukrainian defence industry under the Danish model, a system in which Kyiv's partners finance the purchase of Ukrainian weapons.
Free new supplies from the US have stopped, but perhaps the White House would agree to provide them at a price? That way, critical American equipment would keep reaching Ukraine, and Trump could present it as a political victory.
European governments adopted the same logic and established the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL. The tool enables partner nations to procure vital American weapons for Ukraine. In 2025, 24 countries committed US$4 billion, mostly for air defence missiles and HIMARS rocket artillery as well as ammunition and spare parts.
PURL also enabled Ukraine to secure a US$825 million deal for 3,350 ERAM missiles. The missiles are based on a 227-kg aerial bomb, can reach up to 500 km and feature navigation protected against electronic warfare interference.
"Deliveries of cruise missiles from two different vendors selected for the ERAM programme should commence later this year," Colby Badhwar, a security analyst at Tochnyi, a collaborative project covering the War in Ukraine, told Ukrainska Pravda.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that Europe has increased new military aid to Ukraine by 67%, while new US support has declined by 99%.
Many media outlets quickly spun these numbers into headlines claiming that "US aid has cut to zero". In fact, this is about the approval of new packages, not the actual deliveries.
The long-term aid pledged by the US under the Biden administration has not vanished and continues to reach Ukraine. This is made possible by the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) programme, which buys weapons directly from manufacturers through long-term contracts.
Since 2022, the USAI programme has committed US$33.5 billion in aid packages. Of this total, US$14.1 billion has been paid, US$7.7 billion remains uncontracted and US$11.3 billion is allocated to weapons that have been ordered but not paid for.
"Deliveries under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative continue," Badhwar said. "The Trump Administration has continued to award contracts with available USAI funds. What is unclear is whether any of those funds expired at the end of FY25, it's possible that some may have. We don't have clarity on that."
If we combine the agreements concluded with funds that were previously unallocated, Ukraine could, in the best-case scenario, receive around US$20 billion worth of American weapons over the coming years. This depends on two factors: the availability of funding and there being no US decisions to divert weapons intended for Ukraine to replenish its own stockpiles, as happened in June 2025. In that case, Ukraine would either not receive the weapons at all or face indefinite delays.
Another legal instrument is available to the Trump administration: the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which enables direct transfers of weapons from Pentagon stockpiles. The PDA was the primary channel for US military aid to Ukraine in the early years of the war. During Biden's presidency, 55 packages worth US$31.7 billion were authorised under this mechanism.
Following the start of Trump's second term, the PDA was largely suspended. In 2025, a single US$300 million aid package was publicly announced, delivered against the backdrop of unsuccessful talks with Russia. Whether the US will employ this tool again is unknown.
Weapons deliveries for 2026
Denys Shmyhal, former Ukrainian defence minister, stated that the country had received over US$45 billion in defence assistance in 2025, describing it as a record for the full-scale war. A report by the Kiel Institute, however, gives different figures, showing that European countries provided about US$38 billion. By comparison, Europe's annual average military aid in 2022-2024 was €41.6 billion.
The discrepancy in the figures is most likely due to different calculation methods. The Kiel Institute tracks announced aid packages, while the Ukrainian government reports the amount Ukraine could receive if all partners deliver on their commitments.
The year 2026 could surpass 2025 in scale. Ukraine's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Kyiv's partners pledged US$38 billion in military aid at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting (Ramstein format) on 12 February. Some allocations have been specified: US$2.5 billion for Ukrainian drone production, US$500 million for the PURL mechanism and separate funding for artillery and the navy as well as military training. Under the Czech-led initiative, 760,000 shells have been paid for, and another €165 million is to be earmarked for humanitarian mine clearance.
The UK is set to transfer air defence systems and missiles. France will deliver air-defence missiles and the first SAMP/T NG system capable of ballistic missile interception. Canada plans to provide 66 General Dynamics LAV 6 vehicles and 383 Senator armoured vehicles manufactured by Roshel and to fund the production of anti-aircraft missiles for Ukraine.
Norway plans to provide around US$7 billion to Kyiv and has already set aside US$1.4 billion for drones, US$700 million for air defence systems, US$200 million for artillery and US$125 million for the PURL mechanism.
Sweden will provide US$3.7 billion this year, including €1.2 billion already designated for Tridon Mk2 air-defence systems, the production of Ukrainian long-range missiles and drones as well as ammunition and spare parts.
All of this is based solely on publicly available information.
However, Germany has assumed a leading role in supporting Ukraine this year, planning to provide €12 billion in military aid.
"It is true that, with a few exceptions, most German military aid gets pledged and delivered quietly these days," says an analyst using the alias deaidua, author of the German Aid to Ukraine portal, which tracks Berlin's support. "Nevertheless, based on my own sources and information published both some time ago and recently by the German government and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, I can draw up a rough list of military equipment scheduled for delivery this year."
Deaidua estimates that Ukraine may get as many as four IRIS-T SLM air-defence batteries in 2026, in addition to an unspecified number of Skyranger 35 systems. Shipments of AIM-9 air-to-air missiles, ammunition and armoured vehicle spare parts will also continue.
This year will see Ukraine receive the first RCH-155 self-propelled artillery systems, the transfer of which was first discussed in 2022, along with 18 PzH 2000s ordered in 2024. Simultaneously, the delivery of 200 Ukrainian-made Bohdana self-propelled howitzers is expected, financed under agreements reached last year.
Several other potential sources of weapons could come into play this year. One is the EU's €150 billion SAFE credit mechanism for joint arms purchases. Nineteen countries have joined the programme, 15 of which plan joint projects with Ukraine. This opens up the possibility of financing production not only within the EU but also by Ukrainian manufacturers.
The EU is also planning a €90 billion loan to Ukraine for 2026-2027, of which €60 billion is intended for weapons. Once the initiative was unveiled, debates started on which items should be financed first. Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson has suggested that part of the money be allocated to Gripen fighter jets and air defence, although this remains only a tentative scenario.
The loan decision was due to be adopted by the European Parliament on 24 February, but Hungary has blocked the process, demanding the resumption of Russian oil transit through Ukraine. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is aiming to provide the first aid package before Easter and has alternative mechanisms to deliver.
However, Ukraine itself could become the largest source of weapons in 2026. The question is financing. The country's 2026 budget has set aside US$16.5 billion for procurement, while the Ukrainian defence industry's annual potential is estimated at US$50 billion.
In 2025, 76% of centralised purchases came from Ukrainian manufacturers, supported by US$6 billion in external funding. It is precisely the attraction of external investment that could help boost the number of Ukrainian-made weapons reaching frontline troops.
Ultimately, the record of Western military aid described above suggests that Kyiv needs to build the ability to rely on its own strength.
Illia Volynskyi
Translated by Artem Yakymyshyn
Edited by Susan McDonald