Drones every day. How Ukraine has caught up with Russia in long-range UAV numbers

Ukrainian long-range drones are more frequently striking targets deep inside Russia and are becoming an ever more significant factor in the war. According to open-source data, the number of Ukrainian deep strikes launched in recent months has reached parity with those carried out by Russia.

The geographical scope of their use has also expanded markedly. While earlier Ukrainian strikes were largely focused on border areas, drones are now reaching almost all regions of the European part of Russia.

These shifts reflect the gradual build-up of Ukraine's domestic capabilities in both the production and deployment of this type of drone.

Analysts from the Come Back Alive Foundation Initiatives Centre have examined for Ukrainska Pravda how Ukraine has moved from localised strikes near the front line to the systematic use of long-range unmanned aerial vehicles.

How was this calculated?

Data on the number of downed Ukrainian UAVs is published daily by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) on its official platforms. These reports indicate how many fixed-wing drones were shot down over various regions.

The Russian MoD is not a reliable source and frequently manipulates information. At the same time, its figures on the number of detected (downed) Ukrainian drones and the regions where they were spotted broadly align with Ukrainian data, while the geography matches open-source reporting.

For instance, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in October 2025 that Ukraine was launching around 100-150 UAVs at Russia every day. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Defence, the average number of "downed" UAVs over the same period stood at 122. Meanwhile, one of Ukraine's major manufacturers announced plans at the time to scale up production to as many as 200 kamikaze drones per day.

Russian regions where Ukrainian UAVs were recorded on a given day are also listed in the Russian MoD's briefings. These data generally correspond with findings from Ukrainian and international OSINT analysts, who track drone activity deep inside Russia.

At the same time, Ukraine's Air Force reports daily on the number of Russian UAVs deployed.

Although data from both sides may contain distortions and inaccuracies, taken together they provide a useful basis for assessing the dynamics of Ukrainian UAV launches and the depth of their deployment.

The number of UAVs is increasing

Over the past two years, the number of Ukrainian long-range drone launches has been steadily increasing. From 110 UAVs in January 2024, the figure rose to more than 7,000 in March 2026. The sharpest growth came last year, with Ukraine increasing the number of launches fivefold over the course of 2025.

Financial support from international partners has played a key role in this growth, as an increasing share of funding has been directed towards the production of Ukrainian weapons, including long-range systems. In September 2025 alone, Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union would allocate €6 billion for drone production in Ukraine.

Notably, the gap between the number of Ukrainian and Russian long-range UAVs launched has been steadily narrowing. While in 2024 Russia was launching on average 250 more drones per month than Ukraine, by 2026 this figure had decreased to 150. In March 2026, Ukraine even managed to overtake Russia in the number of launched or recorded UAVs.

The geographical scope is expanding

For Russia's border regions, Ukrainian drones in the sky have effectively become a daily occurrence. For example, in Bryansk Oblast, Ukrainian UAVs were detected on more than 400 days between the beginning of 2025 and March 2026 – meaning there were only a few days each month when they were absent.

Nearby regions are accessible to a broader range of Ukrainian UAVs, as many of them have a shorter operational range. Border oblasts are therefore an ideal target, given the high concentration of military and logistical facilities used to sustain combat operations that are located there.

At the same time, these border areas host a significant number of air defence systems. This increases the likelihood of both detection and interception, and consequently the frequency with which drones appear in official reports.

Although border regions remain priority targets, the geographical scope of Ukrainian strikes continues to expand. Ukrainian UAVs are more frequently being recorded at sites located hundreds and even thousands of kilometres from the front line.

This is clearly illustrated by the map: since the beginning of 2024, drones were largely concentrated in regions close to the Ukrainian border, whereas in subsequent periods they have increasingly appeared in central and northern parts of Russia. The number of regions where they are detected has also been steadily growing. This is not limited to isolated incidents: in a number of more distant regions, drones are now recorded regularly, and at certain times, almost daily.

Cumulative number of days when at least one UAV reached a region on the map

Certain attacks are also reaching remote areas. For example, in February 2026, an oil refinery in the city of Ukhta (Komi Republic) was struck – more than 1,800 km from the Ukrainian border. Such cases indicate not only an increase in numbers, but also a growing operational range.

Earlier, Ukrainska Pravda reported that cases of drone strikes at extremely long distances (900+ km) are already becoming systematic.

What does this change?

The growing number of Ukrainian UAVs is creating a range of challenges for Russia's air defence system. The more drones Ukraine deploys, the more targets need to be tracked and intercepted simultaneously. When a large number of drones are concentrated in one area, air defence systems can become overloaded and are unable to cope with all threats at once. As a result, some UAVs manage to penetrate deeper and strike their targets.

In addition, some of these launches consist of decoy drones – UAVs made from inexpensive materials and without a warhead, designed to force the Russians to spend resources on intercepting them.

The expanding geographical scope of the strikes is forcing the Russians to choose which targets to protect: whether to concentrate air defence systems closer to the contact zone to shield its troops, or redeploy them deeper inside the country to defend industrial and energy facilities. Given the sheer size of Russia's territory, it is simply impossible to cover all critical sites with limited resources.

All this is unfolding as Ukraine's Defence Forces are continuing to destroy more and more Russian air defence systems. Earlier, Ukrainska Pravda reported that over the past year alone, at least 172 strikes on Russian air defence assets – including radar stations, launchers and command posts – have been recorded on video in open sources. In reality, the number of such strikes is significantly higher.

This way Russia risks facing the same challenges it has imposed on Ukraine: countering large-scale daily strikes with limited air defence resources, while maintaining the operation of critical infrastructure and defence industry facilities when even with a high interception rate, a significant number of drones are likely to reach their targets.

Translated by Viktoriia Yurchenko

Edited by Susan McDonald