ISW: Kremlin trying to push Europe to withdraw from helping Ukraine

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Russian authorities are trying to make European assistance to Ukraine look provocative and force Europe to refrain from supporting it.

Source: ISW

Details: The Kremlin is using increasingly threatening rhetoric against Europe to discourage it from supporting Ukraine and defending itself.

On 17 April, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that Russia would consider any missile strike by German Taurus missiles against Russia as Germany's direct involvement in the war.

Zakharova also threatened Estonia, echoing a recent threat by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin that Poland and the Baltic states would be the first to suffer in the event of "NATO aggression" against Russia or Belarus.

Analysts pointed out that the Kremlin had repeatedly used similar threats against Western powers that provide military assistance to Ukraine to influence Western decision-making and deter aid to Kyiv, including almost identical threats against the United States for allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with ATACMS.

Quote: "The Kremlin likely seeks to portray European efforts to augment both European and Ukrainian defensive capabilities as provocative in order to push European countries into self-deterring from providing Ukraine with additional military support and bolstering European defensive capabilities."

To quote the ISW"s Key Takeaways on 17 April: 

• Russian officials continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin's non-negotiable demands for extensive territorial concessions from Ukraine while noting that ongoing peace negotiations are unlikely to achieve results quickly.[NB: Ukrainska Pravda does not recognise Putin as Russian president – ed.]
• Russian forces recently conducted a roughly battalion-sized mechanised assault across a wide front in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, representing an inflection in recently observed Russian mechanised assault tactics.
• The Kremlin is adopting increasingly threatening rhetoric towards Europe aimed at preventing Europe from supporting Ukraine and defending itself.
• Russia is increasingly adapting its drones to facilitate chemical weapons strikes against the frontline and rear areas of Ukraine – in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), of which Russia is a signatory.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that the United States and Ukraine are making progress towards signing a bilateral mineral deal.
• European countries continue to increase their domestic defence production, including in support of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka and Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!