The Telegraph: US privately agrees to provide security guarantees for allies' troops in Ukraine

In private conversations over the past few weeks, the United States has expressed its willingness to provide security guarantees for a military contingent of the coalition of the willing that could be deployed in Ukraine after a peace agreement with Russia is reached.

Source: The Telegraph

Details: The Telegraph reported that UK officials acknowledge that specific guarantees from the United States remain unclear.

Washington has not yet officially promised military support in the event of a direct attack by Russia, and Trump has repeatedly rejected the idea of providing security guarantees in public. However, according to the publication, in private talks in recent weeks, American negotiators have made it clear that they are ready to support Western forces.

Quote: "One form of assistance discussed is intelligence sharing. This is already the bedrock of the historic ‘special relationship’ between the US and UK.

Another is logistical support. European aircraft, military vessels and soldiers on the ground will need supply chains and help understanding Russian movements in Ukraine and beyond."

Details: UK officials stressed that it was difficult to predict what exactly Trump would approve and when.

"There are ongoing discussions and he’s said a number of times that he’d have our back, as you know. And I’ve been clear that that’s an important component of what we need to do," UK PM Keir Starmer said in an interview with The Telegraph

Quote: "Operational discussions over the ‘coalition of the willing’ have been divided into four so-called ‘buckets’ of military activity – ‘skies’, ‘sea’, ‘land’ and ‘regeneration’.

The first and second would involve European allies somehow policing the airspace above Ukraine and the Black Sea to make sure Russia does not violate the terms of peace.

The third regards troops stationed on the ground in Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers rather than Western troops are now expected to man the front line with Russia after any peace settlement.

The fourth area of the coalition’s plans, ‘regeneration’, is about how the Ukrainian military – now considered the most lethal fighting force in Europe – can be sustained in the long run."

More details: Operation Interflex, the UK programme for training Ukrainian military personnel, is expected to be moved from the United Kingdom to Ukraine’s west. However, the possibility of further deployment of British troops beyond this limited engagement is still being considered.

According to UK plans, these four elements do not necessarily have to be deployed simultaneously. It is likely that immediately after a ceasefire is reached, only Ukrainian troops will hold back the Russians, with allies joining gradually.

Meanwhile, it remains an open question whether European allies will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine after the ceasefire, and whether the US will allow the sale of American weapons to Kyiv.

Background:

• The coalition of the willing, which is laying the groundwork for a future post-war settlement, met in London in early March.
• Since then, several coalition meetings have been held in various formats. In particular, on 15 March, military leaders met on the outskirts of London to discuss plans to deploy international forces to Ukraine.
• According to Bloomberg, France and the UK are negotiating with 37 countries to form the coalition of the willing for Ukraine in the event of a peaceful settlement.
• On 4 April, the chiefs of the French and UK general staff visited Kyiv, where they met with Ukraine's top leadership. The purpose of the visit was to discuss the Ukrainian forces’ needs and tasks with a view to providing long-term support.

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