The Guardian: UK's strategic review will point to "immediate and pressing" threat from Russia

The UK is facing a "new era of threat" when drones, artificial intelligence and other technologies are changing the nature of war more fundamentally than ever before in history.

Source: the UK government's strategic defence review, which is expected to be presented on Monday, as European Pravda reports with reference to the Guardian

The 130-page document, written by three advisers to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will warn of the "immediate and pressing" danger from Russia and is expected to draw heavily on lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. 

It will also focus on China, which will be described not as an enemy but as a "sophisticated and persistent challenge" that is sometimes willing to cooperate with Moscow, and two smaller "regional disruptors" in the form of Iran and North Korea.

The review depicts the gravest military and security threat since the end of the Cold War, although it stops short of suggesting that Moscow's heightened cyber and sabotage activities mean the UK is already sliding towards war with Russia.

The analysis, prepared by a group of experts led by former NATO Secretary General George Robertson, is not expected to contain any new commitments to defence spending. Instead, it will reiterate Starmer’s February pledge to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and to 3% during the next parliament.

However, the review is likely to serve as justification for a substantial increase in medium-term defence spending, expected to be agreed upon at the NATO summit in June and potentially exceeding £50 billion (around US$6.65 billion) in real terms.

The review is also expected to address the size of the British army as the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury are reportedly at loggerheads over whether to commit to increasing the planned number of 73,000 personnel.

Figures released this week show that the army’s size has fallen to its lowest level since Napoleon and even before:  as of 1 April, the number of soldiers in full-time military training stood at 70,860, down 2.3% on the previous year.

Assuming recruitment is successful, any commitment to increase army numbers by 5,000 would cost around £2.5 billion (approx. US$3.08 billion) a year in additional salaries, housing, kit and other resources. But if it does succeed, it would help the armed forces meet commitments that are likely to grow in the coming years.

Background:

• The British military will spend over £1 billion (US$1.35 billion) on artificial intelligence and a hacking team.
• NATO has proposed that cybersecurity and border and coastal security costs be included in the Alliance's new target of 1.5% of GDP for "pre-military" spending.

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