World Bank sharply downgrades Ukraine's GDP growth forecast

The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 by more than 3%.

Source: World Bank report

Details: The World Bank now expects Ukraine's GDP to grow by 2% in 2026 instead of the previously projected 5.2%.

The downgrade is linked to the ongoing Russian aggression, weak investment and business activity, destruction of infrastructure, record-high gas imports and a reduction in agricultural exports due to unfavourable weather conditions and the reintroduction of trade restrictions by the EU.

"During the first half of 2025, the value of exports dropped by almost 5% amid a contraction of exports to the European Union, the destination of almost 60% of Ukraine's shipments abroad," the report states.

The forecast projects Ukraine's GDP growth to reach 5% in 2027.

In April 2025, the World Bank had already downgraded its growth forecast for Ukraine from 7% to 5.2%, citing similar reasons, although it noted that a cessation of Russia's full-scale invasion would remain the key condition for higher growth.

Background: Ukraine's real GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, whereas earlier forecasts by the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy and the government had predicted a 2.7% increase.

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