UK Defence Intelligence reveals what it knows about Oreshnik missile and its second use against Ukraine

Mariya Yemets, Tetyana Oliynyk - 9 January, 19:05

Oreshnik missile fragment. Photo: Security Service of Ukraine

UK Defence Intelligence believes the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile used by Russia to strike Ukraine late on 8 January was launched from Kapustin Yar, and that Russia currently possesses only a small number of these experimental missiles.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 9 January on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda

Quote: "On the evening of 08 January 2026 Russia targeted Lviv, Ukraine, with the second operational use of an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), codenamed Oreshnik, launched from Kapustin Yar in Astrakhan Oblast, Russia. The missile travelled approximately 1622 km to its target."

Details: In addition to the Oreshnik, Russia's combined attack on Ukraine involved around 200 UAVs, at least ten different ballistic missiles, and at least ten Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea.

"Russia announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty in February 2019, which banned the development and production of IRBMs. However, the development of Oreshnik almost certainly occurred before this. The system is highly likely a variant of the Rubezh RS-26 ballistic missile, which was first tested in 2011," UK intelligence notes.

UK Defence Intelligence believes the use of this experimental system against Ukraine was most likely intended as "strategic messaging" following Russia's claims that Ukraine deliberately attacked one of Putin's residences on 29 December 2025.

"Russia highly likely only has a handful of Oreshnik missiles. This missile is highly likely to be far more expensive than other missiles Russia is currently using against Ukraine," the update adds.

Background:

On 9 January, UK Defence Secretary John Healey arrived in Kyiv, where he and his Ukrainian counterpart Denys Shmyhal signed a roadmap to implement the 100-year defence partnership agreement previously signed by the two countries.
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, views Russia's second use of the Oreshnik missile as an escalation against Ukraine and a warning to Europe.
Lithuania's Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys described the attack as Russia spitting in the face of all peace efforts.
Following Russia's overnight airstrike on Ukraine, Estonia's Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called for pressure on Russia to be intensified to the point where it becomes unbearable.

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