Bloomberg: Kremlin's focus on US leaves Russia's allies feeling sidelined

Relations with the United States are currently more important for the Kremlin than Venezuela, and the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro is unpleasant for Russia but not catastrophic.

Source: Bloomberg, citing its sources

Details: One of the agency's sources said that a far more serious issue for Moscow is Iran, as Russia's cooperation with Tehran is much closer, particularly in the military sphere. Nevertheless, the source said Russia is likely to limit itself to public support for Iran and will not become deeply involved in assisting it, given its limited capabilities and its priority of ending the war against Ukraine.

Bloomberg notes that Putin's focus on the war against Ukraine has resulted in Russia's strategic allies in various regions of the world feeling a lack of support. In Venezuela, for example, officials reportedly view their long-standing security partnership with Moscow as a "paper tiger" following Maduro's capture by the United States and failures by Cuban and Russian intelligence services.

The agency also reports problems with Russian S-300 and Buk-M2 air defence systems, which, officials say, failed to protect Venezuelan airspace. They say Russia did not provide the necessary technical support for the effective operation of these systems.

Russian assistance in cyber defence was also deemed insufficient. Against the backdrop of alleged US cyberattacks, this may have contributed to large-scale power outages in parts of Caracas.

As a result, Maduro's successor, Delcy Rodríguez, has been forced to accept cooperation proposals from the United States and to loosen ties with former partners.

Bloomberg adds that Maduro's capture is uncomfortable for Russia but not catastrophic, according to the source. Iran, by contrast, poses a more serious challenge, as Russia's cooperation with Tehran is far closer, particularly in the military domain.

The source added that Russia may publicly support Iran but is unlikely to become deeply involved in helping Tehran due to its limited capabilities and its priority of ending the war against Ukraine.

Quote: "That bodes ill for Russia's other strategic partnerships, and suggests that it's all the more important to the Kremlin that it achieves all its aims in Ukraine without concessions at the negotiating table. That in turn may make it harder still for Trump to secure an elusive peace deal."

Background:

• On the night of 2-3 January, acting on the orders of Donald Trump, the US Delta Force carried out an operation in Venezuela, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife. They were subsequently transported to New York, where they are to stand trial.
• Following the operation, Trump said that the United States would govern Venezuela until an "independent transition" of power is ensured.
• On 5 January, the US president demanded that acting president Delcy Rodríguez grant the United States "full access" to the country's resources, warning of a "very high price" should she refuse.

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